Tech & Science Prediction Markets
AI, big tech, space and scientific milestones. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | Volume ↓ | 24h Vol | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 313.8% September 301.1% | — | +0.1 pts | $67.15M | $107.4K | — | $992.6K | 108d |
| 2 | More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? KalshiTech & Science | Yes96% No4.0% | — | — | $31.47M | $96 | $100 | — | 167d |
| 3 | Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? KalshiTech & Science | Before October1.0% No99% | — | — | $30.16M | $6.2K | $125.7K | — | 2y |
| 4 |  Which companies will be acquired before 2027? PolymarketTech & Science | MGM Resorts28% PayPal16% +12 more | — | -6.0 pts | $18.24M | $2.3K | — | $113.5K | 108d |
| 5 |  Largest Company end of December 2026? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA68% Apple24% +6 more | — | -3.5 pts | $7.27M | $65.9K | — | $1.31M | 106d |
| 6 | When will Apple release the iPhone 18? KalshiTech & Science | Before October2.0% No98% | — | +1.0 pts | $4.58M | $4.0K | $119.0K | — | 197d |
| 7 |  Which company has the best AI model end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic96% Google2.2% +19 more | — | +0.1 pts | $3.34M | $94.8K | — | $1.41M | 15d |
| 8 |  Anthropic IPO by __? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202686% December 15, 202685% +6 more | — | -1.0 pts | $3.13M | $62.1K | — | $181.2K | 288d |
| 9 | In Dec 31, 20262.5% No98% | — | — | $1.91M | $17 | $676 | — | 108d | |
| 10 | Largest Company end of September? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA84% Apple16% +7 more | — | -8.1 pts | $1.83M | $74.2K | — | $1.12M | 15d |
| 11 | #1 searched person on Google in 2026 KalshiTech & Science | Erling Haaland22% Bad Bunny11% +14 more | — | -1.0 pts | $1.40M | $885 | $10.3K | — | 107d |
| 12 |  Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | October 3181% October 1552% +2 more | — | +3.0 pts | $1.30M | $5.3K | — | $18.8K | 46d |
| 13 | Which company has best AI model end of 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic71% OpenAI12% +13 more | — | +1.0 pts | $1.25M | $16.9K | — | $981.6K | 108d |
| 14 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? KalshiTech & Science | Before Oct 1, 20261.0% No99% | — | — | $1.11M | $27.3K | $76.7K | — | 197d |
| 15 |  Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...? PolymarketTech & Science | October 3199% December 3199% +2 more | — | +0.1 pts | $1.03M | $8.0K | — | $36.9K | 107d |
| 16 |  SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3146% October 3114% | — | -2.0 pts | $987.6K | $1.8K | — | $14.9K | 108d |
| 17 | When will Anthropic release Mythos? KalshiTech & Science | Before Oct 1, 20261.0% No99% | — | — | $807.7K | $132 | $1.5K | — | 108d |
| 18 | US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? KalshiTech & Science | Grants license5.1% No95% | — | -4.2 pts | $789.3K | $19 | $372 | — | 108d |
| 19 | When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? KalshiTech & Science | Before Oct 1, 20263.0% No97% | — | -2.0 pts | $666.6K | $1.7K | $9.8K | — | 1y |
| 20 | How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Above 12098% No2.0% | — | +1.0 pts | $644.1K | $155 | $1.0K | — | 108d |
| 21 | When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? KalshiTech & Science | Before Oct 1, 20261.0% No99% | — | — | $613.2K | $282 | $4.0K | — | 258d |
| 22 |  SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 PolymarketTech & Science | October 3197% Super Heavy booster explodes?91% +7 more | — | +0.1 pts | $525.1K | $8.5K | — | $55.4K | 288d |
| 23 | When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro? KalshiTech & Science | Before Sep 21, 202699% No1.0% | — | — | $501.4K | $1.9K | $2.0K | — | 258d |
| 24 | Gemini 4.0 released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | November 3089% October 3175% +2 more | — | — | $489.7K | $2.7K | — | $49.0K | 77d |
| 25 |  What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Earbuds/Headphones22% Clip-on device for clothing16% +8 more | — | -1.0 pts | $433.1K | $5.9K | — | $26.1K | 108d |
| 26 |  Best Chinese AI Company end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Alibaba91% Moonshot6.3% +9 more | — | +1.0 pts | $389.5K | $11.7K | — | $87.3K | 15d |
| 27 | Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year? KalshiTech & Science | Any psychedelic substance for medical use24% No76% | — | -4.0 pts | $384.3K | $105 | $436 | — | 108d |
| 28 | Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? KalshiTech & Science | OpenAI9.0% No91% | — | -2.0 pts | $384.0K | $1.6K | $4.1K | — | 13y |
| 29 |  Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202628% October 31, 20266.5% | — | +13.0 pts | $371.2K | $3.7K | — | $36.8K | 108d |
| 30 | Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? KalshiTech & Science | Meta13% No87% | — | -1.0 pts | $370.1K | $456 | $1.9K | — | 108d |
| 31 | Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026? KalshiTech & Science | United States12% No88% | — | — | $359.2K | $21 | $258 | — | 108d |
| 32 | Which company has the best AI model end of October? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic88% Google6.6% +19 more | — | +3.5 pts | $270.6K | $16.5K | — | $461.1K | 46d |
| 33 | Where will Waymo operate in 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Washington, DC6.0% No94% | — | +1.0 pts | $266.7K | $468 | $2.0K | — | 107d |
| 34 |  Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Yes100% No0.1% | — | +0.1 pts | $251.3K | $6.3K | — | $27.4K | 108d |
| 35 |  OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? PolymarketTech & Science | No78% Yes23% | — | +1.5 pts | $250.6K | $4.4K | — | $21.4K | 106d |
| 36 | Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? PolymarketTech & Science | 152074% 15404.9% +2 more | — | -15.3 pts | $232.8K | $12.7K | — | $16.7K | 15d |
| 37 |  #1 Searched Person on Google 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Lindsay Clancy24% Erling Haaland17% +44 more | — | +3.5 pts | $214.7K | $3.4K | — | $1.84M | 107d |
| 38 |  AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202776% December 31, 202654% +1 more | — | -6.0 pts | $206.9K | $12.1K | — | $16.5K | 1y |
| 39 | #1 Searched Movie on Google 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | The Odyssey41% Obsession30% +18 more | — | +4.5 pts | $191.4K | $2.8K | — | $583.4K | 107d |
| 40 | Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31? PolymarketTech & Science | ↑ 152085% ↑ 153023% +5 more | — | -11.0 pts | $189.5K | $2.0K | — | $6.9K | 108d |
| 41 | 3rd Largest Company end of September? PolymarketEconomics | Alphabet93% Microsoft4.5% +7 more | — | — | $179.1K | $1.7K | — | $213.4K | 15d |
| 42 | AI capability growth this year? KalshiTech & Science | At least 1520 score61% No39% | — | -2.0 pts | $173.9K | $394 | $856 | — | 108d |
| 43 | #1 Searched Person on Google in the US 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Lindsay Clancy40% Bad Bunny18% +55 more | — | +0.5 pts | $167.3K | $1.8K | — | $1.45M | 107d |
| 44 |  Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...? PolymarketTech & Science | No93% Yes7.5% | — | +1.0 pts | $150.4K | $2.5K | — | $18.0K | 108d |
| 45 | What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? KalshiTech & Science | Phone7.0% No93% | — | — | $146.4K | $611 | $3.7K | — | 108d |
| 46 | In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes32% No68% | — | — | $137.9K | M$20.8K | — | $209 | 1y |
| 47 |  Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | OpenAI77% Anthropic24% +14 more | — | -6.3 pts | $136.5K | $6.2K | — | $22.2K | 15d |
| 48 | Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next? PolymarketTech & Science | Hodge Conjecture36% No solution by Dec 31, 202729% +4 more | — | -5.0 pts | $123.4K | $18.9K | — | $31.7K | 1y |
| 49 | OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202769% December 31, 202647% +1 more | — | -4.0 pts | $121.9K | $19.4K | — | $21.4K | 1y |
| 50 | 2nd Largest Company end of September? PolymarketEconomics | Apple84% NVIDIA14% +7 more | — | -4.5 pts | $119.8K | $11.6K | — | $141.8K | 15d |
| 51 |  How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31? PolymarketTech & Science | <1261% 12-1523% +5 more | — | +2.5 pts | $118.1K | $3.4K | — | $19.0K | 108d |
| 52 | Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Z.ai59% Moonshot24% +9 more | — | -2.5 pts | $116.2K | $2.3K | — | $16.4K | 15d |
| 53 |  Next Claude Opus released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | October 3198% December 3198% +1 more | — | -0.8 pts | $112.1K | $3.8K | — | $13.8K | 108d |
| 54 |  U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No90% Yes11% | — | -8.0 pts | $108.7K | $5.5K | — | $16.9K | 108d |
| 55 |  Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | 45%+66% 50%+42% +3 more | — | -13.3 pts | $104.6K | $3.8K | — | $4.9K | 108d |
| 56 | Second-best AI Lab end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Google75% Meta16% +19 more | — | +6.0 pts | $101.4K | $3.4K | — | $28.8K | 15d |
| 57 |  How much will the iPhone 18 Pro cost? PolymarketTech & Science | $1000+100% $1150+100% +3 more | — | — | $82.3K | $2.3K | — | $26.5K | 197d |
| 58 |  Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | No89% Yes12% | — | -36.0 pts | $77.7K | $6.8K | — | $1.4K | 108d |
| 59 | Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes5.1% No95% | — | — | $73.7K | M$11.0K | — | $26 | 3y |
| 60 |  Another critical Cloudflare incident by...? PolymarketPolitics | October 3147% September 3025% +1 more | — | -10.0 pts | $71.9K | $2.2K | — | $14.2K | 46d |
| 61 |  Situational Awareness raises new capital by...? PolymarketTech & Science | Yes74% No26% | — | +19.5 pts | $71.0K | $2.0K | — | $832 | 46d |
| 62 | #1 Searched Athlete on Google 2026? PolymarketSports | Erling Braut Haaland48% Alysa Liu17% +33 more | — | +0.5 pts | $69.2K | $2.1K | — | $848.5K | 107d |
| 63 |  Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic87% OpenAI11% +18 more | — | +1.0 pts | $64.3K | $4.5K | — | $36.9K | 15d |
| 64 | Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Z.ai43% Google20% +18 more | — | +4.3 pts | $59.1K | $2.9K | — | $22.2K | 15d |
| 65 | Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Google70% Anthropic15% +18 more | — | -8.0 pts | $59.0K | $1.6K | — | $17.8K | 15d |
| 66 | Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | 1500+76% 1505+65% +3 more | — | +5.0 pts | $58.8K | $4.7K | — | $11.2K | 108d |
| 67 |  Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | 45%+83% 50%+35% +3 more | — | -1.8 pts | $57.6K | $2.2K | — | $4.6K | 108d |
| 68 | How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | 049% 128% +4 more | — | +6.5 pts | $54.7K | $6.1K | — | $30.1K | 108d |
| 69 |  Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202768% December 31, 202641% +1 more | — | +1.5 pts | $53.5K | $7.8K | — | $29.3K | 1y |
| 70 | When will nuclear fusion be achieved? KalshiTech & Science | Before 203033% No67% | — | — | $47.7K | $683 | $1.9K | — | 13y |
| 71 | When will xAI release Grok 5? KalshiTech & Science | Before October5.0% No95% | — | -2.0 pts | $40.3K | $969 | $2.3K | — | 108d |
| 72 |  GPU rental prices (B200) end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | $6.50-$7.0034% $7.00-$7.5027% +4 more | — | — | $39.9K | $3.8K | — | $1.9K | 15d |
| 73 | Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Above 4k99% No1.0% | — | — | $39.0K | $635 | $786 | — | 108d |
| 74 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution? KalshiTech & Science | Before Jan 1, 202756% No44% | — | -26.0 pts | $37.7K | $954 | $1.5K | — | 1y |
| 75 | Price of NVIDIA H200 compute by Dec 31, 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Above $5.7967% No33% | — | -8.0 pts | $32.4K | $893 | $1.5K | — | 108d |
| 76 | When will Google release Gemini 4? KalshiTech & Science | Before Sep 16, 20263.0% No97% | — | — | $32.4K | $558 | $2.8K | — | 108d |
| 77 |  Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | September 1853% September 140.1% | — | -8.0 pts | $30.6K | $8.4K | — | $23.8K | 33d |
| 78 |  Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | October 3195% September 3095% +1 more | — | — | $27.5K | $2.0K | — | $11.3K | 77d |
| 79 | Best AI model on September 21? PolymarketTech & Science | claude-fable-5.1-max71% Other25% +3 more | — | -12.0 pts | $21.1K | $7.6K | — | $6.7K | 6d |
| 80 |  AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | No88% Yes13% | — | — | $18.3K | $4.4K | — | $1.9K | 108d |
| 81 |  Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31? PolymarketTech & Science | Google52% Microsoft48% +11 more | — | — | $17.1K | $17.2K | — | $22.2K | 46d |
| 82 | Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2026 PolymarketTech & Science | Lindsay Clancy83% Bad Bunny42% +14 more | — | +26.5 pts | $16.7K | $4.3K | — | $40.4K | 107d |
| 83 | Best Chinese AI Company end of October? PolymarketTech & Science | Alibaba59% Moonshot26% +9 more | — | +5.0 pts | $14.7K | $1.8K | — | $10.7K | 46d |
| 84 | Top 5 Most Searched Athletes on Google 2026 PolymarketTech & Science | Erling Braut Haaland86% Alysa Liu67% +10 more | — | +4.5 pts | $14.5K | $2.0K | — | $10.5K | 107d |
| 85 | Next Gemini Pro model release KalshiTech & Science | Before Sep 16, 20262.0% No98% | — | — | $12.6K | $834 | $1.3K | — | 77d |
| 86 | Which math problems will AI solve in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Hodge Conjecture43% Hadwiger-Nelson Problem36% +12 more | — | +6.0 pts | $10.1K | $3.5K | — | $12.9K | 108d |
| 87 | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | November 3069% October 3166% +1 more | — | -17.0 pts | $9.2K | $2.9K | — | $1.0K | 77d |
| 88 | Which banks will take OpenAI public? KalshiTech & Science | Evercore8.0% No92% | — | -9.0 pts | $8.5K | $1.2K | $2.9K | — | 1y |
| 89 | When will SpaceX launch Dragon Crew-13 KalshiTech & Science | Before Sep 20, 20264.0% No96% | — | — | $7.2K | $615 | $666 | — | 108d |
| 90 | Yes32% No68% | — | — | $6.8K | M$3.0K | — | $52 | 1y | |
| 91 | Anthropic flips Apple before 2030? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes45% No55% | — | — | $4.8K | M$2.9K | — | $10 | 4y |
| 92 | OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups by...? PolymarketTech & Science | October 31, 202683% September 30, 202647% +1 more | — | +31.0 pts | $2.7K | $2.7K | — | $2.4K | 46d |
| 93 | #2 Searched Person on Google 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Timothée Chalamet25% Erling Haaland23% +44 more | — | — | $2.2K | $2.2K | — | $50.0K | 107d |
| 94 |  US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No85% Yes16% | — | — | $2.0K | $2.5K | — | $8.5K | 108d |
| 95 | Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes99% No1.0% | — | — | $723 | M$13.1K | — | $10 | 3y |
| 96 | [ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes6.8% No93% | — | — | $689 | M$1.8K | — | $51 | 107d |
| 97 | OpenAI discovers the first proof of the Riemann Hypothesis before 2027? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes12% No88% | — | — | $122 | M$3.2K | — | $1 | 107d |
| 98 | Yes54% No46% | — | — | $93 | M$2.8K | — | $100 | 1y | |
| 99 | Yes7.7% No92% | — | — | $43 | M$2.8K | — | $10 | 5d | |
| 100 | Will Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes26% No74% | — | — | $25 | M$4.9K | — | $2 | 1y |