Tech & Science Prediction Markets
AI, big tech, space and scientific milestones. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | 24h Vol ↓ | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Largest Company end of July? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA69% Apple28% +6 more | — | -21.0 pts | $350.0K | — | $1.27M | 6d |
| 2 |  SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 PolymarketTech & Science | July 31100% August 31100% +7 more | — | +11.3 pts | $168.1K | — | $191.0K | — |
| 3 |  What will Dow say during their next earnings call? PolymarketTech & Science | No100% Yes0.1% | — | -27.3 pts | $139.5K | — | $393.0K | Closed |
| 4 |  Which company has best AI model end of July? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic99% OpenAI0.2% +13 more | — | +0.7 pts | $119.0K | — | $2.11M | 5d |
| 5 |  OpenAI IPO by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202618% September 30, 20264.3% +2 more | — | -1.0 pts | $67.0K | — | $160.3K | 158d |
| 6 | 2nd Largest Company end of July? PolymarketEconomics | Apple70% NVIDIA29% +6 more | — | -21.0 pts | $45.9K | — | $211.7K | 6d |
| 7 | Which company has best AI model end of August? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic89% OpenAI4.0% +19 more | — | -5.0 pts | $41.3K | — | $801.8K | 36d |
| 8 |  Best Chinese AI Company end of July? PolymarketTech & Science | Alibaba79% Moonshot16% +9 more | — | -0.5 pts | $40.8K | — | $124.8K | 5d |
| 9 |  What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (July 24) PolymarketTech & Science | SpaceX 3+ times100% Software100% +12 more | — | +24.4 pts | $36.5K | — | $5.5K | Closed |
| 10 |  Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...? PolymarketTech & Science | August 3186% August 727% +6 more | — | — | $29.2K | — | $30.5K | 6d |
| 11 | How many launches will SpaceX have in July? KalshiTech & Science | Above 1099% No1.0% | — | +1.0 pts | $19.7K | $81.0K | — | 7d |
| 12 |  GPT-6 released by…? PolymarketTech & Science | December 31, 202689% September 30, 202671% +5 more | — | — | $16.3K | — | $97.7K | Closed |
| 13 | Largest Company end of December 2026? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA62% Apple26% +6 more | — | -3.0 pts | $15.4K | — | $869.0K | 158d |
| 14 | Largest Company end of August? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA61% Apple32% +6 more | — | -17.5 pts | $14.4K | — | $410.4K | 37d |
| 15 | Which company has best AI model end of 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic63% Google11% +13 more | — | -2.0 pts | $13.6K | — | $604.5K | 158d |
| 16 | Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...? PolymarketTech & Science | No release by July 3196% July 281.9% +7 more | — | +3.8 pts | $11.6K | — | $93.9K | 6d |
| 17 | 3rd Largest Company end of August? PolymarketEconomics | Alphabet89% Apple7.0% +6 more | — | -2.5 pts | $11.5K | — | $280.6K | 37d |
| 18 | Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August? PolymarketTech & Science | Moonshot50% Alibaba35% +9 more | — | -9.5 pts | $9.6K | — | $17.0K | 37d |
| 19 |  Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic94% Moonshot2.2% +13 more | — | -0.4 pts | $9.5K | — | $104.0K | 5d |
| 20 | 3rd Largest Company end of July? PolymarketEconomics | Alphabet99% Apple0.5% +6 more | — | +0.9 pts | $8.9K | — | $219.3K | 6d |
| 21 | Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of August? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic76% Google9.5% +18 more | — | — | $8.6K | — | $74.7K | 36d |
| 22 | Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? PolymarketTech & Science | 151071% 152012% +3 more | — | +33.0 pts | $8.4K | — | $16.5K | 66d |
| 23 |  #1 Searched Person on Google 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Bad Bunny13% Erling Haaland12% +43 more | — | — | $6.7K | — | $517.5K | 159d |
| 24 |  GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | $5.50-$6.0031% $6.50-$7.0020% +8 more | — | +19.0 pts | $6.6K | — | $39.2K | 159d |
| 25 |  Next Claude Opus: Text Arena Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | 1470+94% 1480+90% +4 more | — | +11.5 pts | $6.6K | — | $23.4K | 159d |
| 26 | Top Coding AI this month KalshiTech & Science | ChatGPT92% Claude7.0% +6 more | — | +22.0 pts | $6.6K | $16.5K | — | 6d |
| 27 |  Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of July? PolymarketTech & Science | Moonshot64% Anthropic34% +13 more | — | -25.1 pts | $6.1K | — | $23.9K | 6d |
| 28 | Best AI this week KalshiTech & Science | Claude99% Gemini2.0% +6 more | — | +1.0 pts | $6.0K | $38.9K | — | 2d |
| 29 | Best AI at the end of 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Claude64% ChatGPT11% +6 more | — | +0.5 pts | $5.7K | $49.1K | — | 159d |
| 30 | Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? KalshiTech & Science | Before August1.0% No99% | — | — | $5.5K | $64.2K | — | 2y |
| 31 | Top AI model in July? KalshiTech & Science | claude-opus-4-6-thinking82% claude-opus-4-61.0% +8 more | — | -1.0 pts | $5.1K | $7.6K | — | 6d |
| 32 | #1 searched person on Google in 2026 KalshiTech & Science | Timothée Chalamet39% Bad Bunny20% +12 more | — | +38.0 pts | $5.0K | $28.1K | — | 159d |
| 33 |  Which company has the best AI Agent end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic79% OpenAI8.0% +16 more | — | +35.5 pts | $4.9K | — | $47.2K | 67d |
| 34 | Price of NVIDIA B200 compute by Jul 31, 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Above $3.4699% No1.0% | — | — | $4.7K | $6.1K | — | 7d |
| 35 |  Elon Musk Net Worth on July 31? PolymarketEconomics | <$0.70T45% $0.70-$0.80T35% +5 more | — | +13.7 pts | $4.3K | — | $56.6K | 6d |
| 36 |  Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | 50%+69% 55%+39% +3 more | — | +7.0 pts | $3.8K | — | $14.6K | 159d |
| 37 | Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31? PolymarketTech & Science | 156069% 158035% +1 more | — | +12.5 pts | $3.7K | — | $13.9K | 158d |
| 38 | When will OpenAI release GPT-6? KalshiTech & Science | Before Aug 1, 20263.0% No97% | — | — | $3.7K | $7.7K | — | 160d |
| 39 | Next Claude Opus: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? PolymarketTech & Science | 35%+96% 40%+86% +3 more | — | +10.2 pts | $3.5K | — | $5.0K | 159d |
| 40 |  Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | 45%+46% 50%+33% +3 more | — | +1.0 pts | $3.5K | — | $5.1K | 159d |
| 41 | Best Chinese AI Company end of August? PolymarketTech & Science | Alibaba65% Z.ai9.0% +9 more | — | +0.5 pts | $3.4K | — | $35.9K | 36d |
| 42 |  #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24? PolymarketTech & Science | TikTok Pro - Events51% ChatGPT35% | — | +45.0 pts | $3.3K | — | $161 | Closed |
| 43 |  What will Procter & Gamble say during their next earnings call? PolymarketTech & Science | China99% Category99% +20 more | — | +0.9 pts | $3.3K | — | $22.3K | 4d |
| 44 |  Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | 60%+45% 65%+25% +4 more | — | -11.0 pts | $3.1K | — | $9.9K | 159d |
| 45 |  Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? PolymarketTech & Science | December 3118% September 309.5% | — | -4.5 pts | $3.1K | — | $35.1K | 158d |
| 46 |  Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition? PolymarketPolitics | Paramount63% None by June 30, 202727% +2 more | — | -9.5 pts | $2.9K | — | $49.4K | 339d |
| 47 |  #2 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On) PolymarketTech & Science | Meta56% Google21% +19 more | — | — | $2.9K | — | $38.8K | 37d |
| 48 | Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31? PolymarketTech & Science | ↑ 151087% ↑ 152069% +6 more | — | +42.5 pts | $2.9K | — | $18.6K | 158d |
| 49 | GPU rental prices (B200) end of July? PolymarketTech & Science | $6.00-$7.0073% $5.00-$6.0013% +4 more | — | +4.0 pts | $2.6K | — | $16.9K | 6d |
| 50 |  Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27? PolymarketTech & Science | Yes97% No3.1% | — | +0.2 pts | $2.6K | — | $7.0K | 2d |
| 51 | GPU rental prices (H200) end of July? PolymarketTech & Science | $4.00-$5.0078% $5.00-$6.0012% +4 more | — | +21.5 pts | $2.6K | — | $19.3K | 6d |
| 52 |  Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | No74% Yes26% | — | -27.4 pts | $2.6K | — | $5.5K | 158d |
| 53 | Top AI model this week KalshiTech & Science | claude-opus-4-6-thinking92% claude-opus-4-62.0% +2 more | — | -1.0 pts | $2.4K | $5.1K | — | 2d |
| 54 | #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 24? PolymarketTech & Science | HotSchedules98% AnkiMobile Flashcards2.2% +1 more | — | +5.0 pts | $2.4K | — | $4.0K | Closed |
| 55 | Which company has the third best AI model end of July? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic95% OpenAI1.1% +13 more | — | +1.3 pts | $2.3K | — | $54.2K | 5d |
| 56 |  Largest Indian Company at end of 2026? PolymarketEconomics | Reliance Industries Ltd93% Hindustan Unilever Ltd4.5% +14 more | — | +22.5 pts | $2.2K | — | $47.5K | 159d |
| 57 | Price of NVIDIA H100 SXM compute by Jul 31, 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Above $1.9699% No1.0% | — | — | $2.1K | $2.6K | — | 7d |
| 58 |  Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | 50%+67% 55%+41% +3 more | — | +15.0 pts | $2.1K | — | $8.3K | 159d |
| 59 | 2nd Largest Company end of August? PolymarketEconomics | Apple62% NVIDIA29% +6 more | — | +4.5 pts | $2.1K | — | $205.4K | 37d |
| 60 | Which company has the best AI model end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Anthropic86% Google7.0% +19 more | — | +2.5 pts | $2.1K | — | $454.8K | 67d |
| 61 |  Human moon landing in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | No98% Yes1.7% | — | -0.5 pts | $2.0K | — | $30.2K | 158d |
| 62 | Best AI model on August 1? PolymarketTech & Science | claude-opus-4-6-thinking70% Other29% +2 more | — | -11.0 pts | $1.9K | — | $7.0K | 7d |
| 63 | GPU rental prices (H100) end of July? PolymarketTech & Science | $2.60-$2.9069% $2.90-$3.2020% +5 more | — | +16.0 pts | $1.9K | — | $15.4K | 6d |
| 64 | Best Chinese AI Company this month KalshiTech & Science | Alibaba77% Moonshot18% +7 more | — | +4.0 pts | $1.9K | $10.9K | — | 6d |
| 65 | Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | 45%+64% 50%+26% +3 more | — | -12.5 pts | $1.9K | — | $3.3K | 159d |
| 66 | NVIDIA B200 · Hourly price on Aug 07 (Week 32) KalshiTech & Science | Above $3.0099% No1.0% | — | +1.0 pts | $1.8K | $2.0K | — | 13d |
| 67 | What will be the price of a foldable iPhone? KalshiTech & Science | At least $180091% No9.0% | — | — | $1.8K | $3.6K | — | 160d |
| 68 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by…? PolymarketTech & Science | September 3080% August 3144% +1 more | — | +3.5 pts | $1.8K | — | $13.1K | 66d |
| 69 |  Which companies will be acquired before 2027? PolymarketTech & Science | PayPal61% MGM Resorts53% +12 more | — | +0.5 pts | $1.8K | — | $43.7K | 158d |
| 70 | NVIDIA H200 · Average hourly price in August KalshiTech & Science | Above $1.5098% No2.0% | — | — | $1.7K | $2.5K | — | 38d |
| 71 | #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24? PolymarketTech & Science | ChatGPT75% TikTok Pro - Events20% | — | +25.0 pts | $1.7K | — | $190 | Closed |
| 72 | More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? KalshiTech & Science | Yes86% No15% | — | -5.5 pts | $1.7K | $2.0K | — | 219d |
| 73 | When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1? KalshiTech & Science | Before September27% No73% | — | +2.0 pts | $1.7K | $4.9K | — | 160d |
| 74 | When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? KalshiTech & Science | Before Aug 1, 20261.0% No99% | — | — | $1.6K | $21.5K | — | 250d |
| 75 |  Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of August? PolymarketTech & Science | OpenAI82% Reve5.6% +11 more | — | -10.5 pts | $1.6K | — | $11.6K | 37d |
| 76 | Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | 55%+71% 60%+18% +3 more | — | +18.0 pts | $1.6K | — | $4.2K | 159d |
| 77 |  Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? PolymarketTech & Science | Yes97% No3.0% | — | +0.3 pts | $1.6K | — | $20.8K | 158d |
| 78 | Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? PolymarketTech & Science | #1096% #546% +2 more | — | -2.9 pts | $1.5K | — | $37.0K | 158d |
| 79 | Best Chinese AI Company end of September? PolymarketTech & Science | Alibaba62% DeepSeek12% +9 more | — | -8.5 pts | $1.4K | — | $10.7K | 67d |
| 80 | Price of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute by Jul 31, 2026? KalshiTech & Science | Above $0.0399% No1.0% | — | — | $1.3K | $3.1K | — | 7d |
| 81 | Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes90% No9.6% | — | — | M$21.6K | — | $100 | 8y |
| 82 | Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes96% No4.5% | — | — | M$16.2K | — | $100 | 6d |
| 83 | Anthropic flips Apple before 2030? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes45% No55% | — | — | M$12.3K | — | $10 | 4y |
| 84 | Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes99% No1.0% | — | — | M$8.8K | — | $10 | 159d |
| 85 | Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028 ManifoldTech & Science | Yes38% No62% | — | — | M$4.4K | — | $10 | 1y |
| 86 | Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes95% No5.0% | — | — | M$3.1K | — | $50 | 3y |
| 87 | Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2029? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes1.1% No99% | — | — | M$3.0K | — | $14 | 2y |
| 88 | Yes59% No41% | — | — | M$2.3K | — | $100 | 1y | |
| 89 | In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes31% No69% | — | — | M$2.0K | — | $209 | 1y |
| 90 | Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes50% No50% | — | — | M$1.8K | — | $60 | 5y |
| 91 | Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes82% No18% | — | — | M$1.7K | — | $10 | 159d |
| 92 | Tesla Stock hits $575 before $300 ManifoldTech & Science | Yes7.9% No92% | — | — | M$1.5K | — | $10 | 159d |
| 93 | Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes71% No29% | — | — | M$1.4K | — | $10 | 38d |
| 94 | Will Tesla declare bankruptcy or be acquired by the end of 2027? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes18% No82% | — | — | M$968 | — | $20 | 1y |
| 95 | What does the "G" stand for in "ChatGPT" (and LLMs like GPT-4)? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes99% No1.0% | — | — | M$946 | — | $1 | 20h |
| 96 | Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 on or before July 31, 2026? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes99% No1.0% | — | — | M$929 | — | $1 | 6d |
| 97 | Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes65% No35% | — | — | M$836 | — | $26 | 24y |
| 98 | 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI) ManifoldTech & Science | Yes26% No74% | — | — | M$782 | — | $26 | 1y |
| 99 | Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes14% No86% | — | — | M$655 | — | $20 | 159d |
| 100 | Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 before August 1, 2026? ManifoldTech & Science | Yes99% No1.0% | — | — | M$505 | — | $1 | 6d |