Same Market, Two Prices

Some questions are traded on more than one site at the same time — and the sites don’t always agree on the odds. Here’s where they disagree most.

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🎯 A prediction market lets people bet on whether something will happen. Its price acts like a percentage: “42%” means the market thinks there’s a 42% chance it happens.
📊 Each row below is one possible outcome, with that percentage on each site that trades it.
↔️ The gap is how far apart the sites are. Example: if one site says 20% and another says 24%, that’s a 4-point gap — one of them may be mispriced.
⚠️ A gap is a lead to investigate, not free money. The two markets can settle on slightly different terms (dates, wording, source), and trading has fees. Always open both and check before acting.

Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
96°F or higher	0.1%	31%	31 pt gap
92-93°F	0.1%	18%	18 pt gap
90-91°F	0.1%	13%	13 pt gap
88-89°F	0.1%	5.0%	5 pt gap
86-87°F	0.1%	3.0%	3 pt gap

Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
↑ 67,500	25%	0.0%	25 pt gap
↓ 57,500	4.0%	0.0%	4 pt gap
↑ 72,500	2.3%	0.0%	2 pt gap
↓ 52,500	0.9%	0.0%	1 pt gap
↑ 77,500	0.4%	0.0%	0 pt gap
↑ 82,500	0.3%	0.0%	0 pt gap
↓ 47,500	0.3%	0.0%	0 pt gap
↓ 42,500	0.1%	0.0%	0 pt gap

Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
Moonshot	0.1%	18%	18 pt gap
DeepSeek	0.1%	1.0%	1 pt gap
Z.ai	0.1%	1.0%	1 pt gap
Baidu	0.1%	1.0%	1 pt gap
ByteDance	0.1%	1.0%	1 pt gap

Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
December 31, 2026	8.5%	0.1%	8 pt gap
September 30, 2026	3.4%	0.1%	3 pt gap
August 31, 2026	1.7%	0.1%	2 pt gap
July 31, 2026	0.3%	0.1%	0 pt gap

Chance this happens — compared across sites

Result	Kalshi	Manifold	Gap
Yes	1.0%	7.2%	6 pt gap

Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
Gavin Newsom	13%	18%	5 pt gap
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	8.8%	15%	6 pt gap
Jon Ossoff	8.8%	15%	6 pt gap
Kamala Harris	5.0%	9.4%	4 pt gap
Pete Buttigieg	2.4%	6.0%	4 pt gap
Pete Hegseth	0.4%	6.0%	6 pt gap
Josh Shapiro	2.5%	4.6%	2 pt gap
Josh Stein	0.1%	4.6%	4 pt gap

Chance this happens — compared across sites

Result	Polymarket	Manifold	Gap
Yes	33%	37%	5 pt gap

Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
Arsenal	36%	33%	2 pt gap
Manchester City	30%	25%	4 pt gap
Liverpool	12%	14%	3 pt gap
Manchester United	12%	14%	3 pt gap
Chelsea	9.5%	11%	2 pt gap
Tottenham	4.0%	5.0%	1 pt gap
Aston Villa	1.7%	3.0%	1 pt gap
Newcastle United	0.5%	2.0%	1 pt gap

Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
Harry Kane	41%	45%	4 pt gap
Lamine Yamal	25%	26%	1 pt gap
Kylian Mbappé	12%	14%	2 pt gap
Rodri	12%	11%	1 pt gap
Lionel Messi	4.2%	4.0%	0 pt gap
Ousmane Dembélé	1.5%	2.0%	1 pt gap
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	1.4%	1.0%	0 pt gap
Erling Haaland	0.4%	1.0%	1 pt gap

Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
Abdul El-Sayed	64%	65%	2 pt gap
Haley Stevens	33%	37%	4 pt gap
Mallory McMorrow	0.1%	1.4%	1 pt gap
Sarah Anthony	0.1%	0.1%	0 pt gap
Dana Nessel	0.1%	0.1%	0 pt gap
Kristen McDonald Rivet	0.1%	0.1%	0 pt gap
Andy Levin	0.1%	0.1%	0 pt gap
Matt Sahr	0.1%	0.1%	0 pt gap

Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
Oklahoma City Thunder	24%	21%	2 pt gap
San Antonio Spurs	20%	20%	1 pt gap
Philadelphia 76ers	14%	12%	2 pt gap
New York Knicks	8.5%	8.0%	1 pt gap
Boston Celtics	4.5%	6.0%	2 pt gap
Miami Heat	4.3%	4.0%	0 pt gap
Toronto Raptors	4.0%	4.0%	0 pt gap
Minnesota Timberwolves	3.4%	4.0%	1 pt gap

Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva	62%	62%	1 pt gap
Flávio Bolsonaro	23%	24%	1 pt gap
Renan Santos	12%	11%	1 pt gap
Ronaldo Caiado	1.9%	3.4%	1 pt gap
Jair Bolsonaro	1.1%	2.5%	1 pt gap
Romeu Zema	0.9%	1.1%	0 pt gap
Fernando Haddad	0.4%	1.1%	1 pt gap
Michelle Bolsonaro	0.9%	0.8%	0 pt gap

Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	Gap
Philadelphia	100%	99%	1 pt gap
Boston	0.1%	1.0%	1 pt gap
Brooklyn	0.1%	1.0%	1 pt gap
New York	0.1%	1.0%	1 pt gap
Toronto	0.1%	1.0%	1 pt gap
Chicago	0.1%	1.0%	1 pt gap
Cleveland	0.1%	1.0%	1 pt gap
Detroit	0.1%	1.0%	1 pt gap