Same Market, Two Prices
Some questions are traded on more than one site at the same time — and the sites don’t always agree on the odds. Here’s where they disagree most.
New here? How to read this
- 🎯 A prediction market lets people bet on whether something will happen. Its price acts like a percentage: “42%” means the market thinks there’s a 42% chance it happens.
- 📊 Each row below is one possible outcome, with that percentage on each site that trades it.
- ↔️ The gap is how far apart the sites are. Example: if one site says 20% and another says 24%, that’s a 4-point gap — one of them may be mispriced.
- ⚠️ A gap is a lead to investigate, not free money. The two markets can settle on slightly different terms (dates, wording, source), and trading has fees. Always open both and check before acting.
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $899.5K tradedPolymarket US: $138.2K traded
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $16.05M tradedPolymarket US: $16.4K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread -1.5 | 100% | 99% | 1 pt gap |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% | 94% | 6 pt gap |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% | 85% | 15 pt gap |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% | 81% | 19 pt gap |
| Spread -6.5 | 100% | 77% | 23 pt gap |
| O/U 39.5 | 100% | 62% | 38 pt gap |
| Spread -0.5 | 100% | 98% | 2 pt gap |
| O/U 28.5 | 100% | 90% | 10 pt gap |
| O/U 30.5 | 100% | 85% | 15 pt gap |
| O/U 32.5 | 100% | 80% | 20 pt gap |
| O/U 36.5 | 100% | 76% | 24 pt gap |
| O/U 38.5 | 100% | 65% | 35 pt gap |
Pro Football Worst Regular Season Record?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $1.00M traded
Top 10 Fantasy WR
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $4.2K tradedKalshi: $71.4K traded
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $12.04M tradedPolymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $14.15M traded
New Hampshire Senate margin of victory
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $9.7K traded
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $3.34M tradedPolymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $370.1K traded
Bitcoin above ___ on September 15?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $65.88M tradedPolymarket US: $24.0K tradedKalshi: $35.94M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60,000 to 64,999.99 | 37% | — | 5.9% | 31 pt gap |
| 95,000 to 99,999.99 | 1.8% | 25% | 5.2% | 23 pt gap |
| 105,000 to 109,999.99 | 0.1% | 15% | 2.3% | 15 pt gap |
| 80,000 to 84,999.99 | 4.3% | — | 13% | 9 pt gap |
| 115,000 to 119,999.99 | — | 10% | 1.0% | 9 pt gap |
| 125,000 to 129,999.99 | — | 7.0% | 1.0% | 6 pt gap |
| 145,000 to 149,999.99 | — | 7.0% | 0.3% | 7 pt gap |
| 135,000 to 139,999.99 | — | 5.0% | 0.3% | 5 pt gap |
| 55,000 to 59,999.99 | 0.8% | — | 3.6% | 3 pt gap |
| 100,000 to 104,999.99 | 0.1% | — | 3.0% | 3 pt gap |
Tyreek Hill's Next Team
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $4.9K tradedKalshi: $420.7K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | 1.0% | 31% | 30 pt gap |
| Los Angeles C | 1.0% | 9.0% | 8 pt gap |
| Washington | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Chicago | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| New York G | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0 pt gap |
| San Francisco | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Cleveland | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Dallas | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Detroit | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Houston | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Philadelphia | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
Brazil Presidential Election
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $149.87M tradedPolymarket US: $14.1K tradedKalshi: $94.4K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 52% | 57% | 75% | 23 pt gap |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 46% | 41% | 27% | 19 pt gap |
| Romeu Zema | 0.1% | — | 13% | 13 pt gap |
| Renan Santos | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Augusto Cury | 0.4% | — | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Camilo Santana | 0.1% | 1.0% | — | 1 pt gap |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | 0.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0.1% | — | 0.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.1% | — | 0.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | 0.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | 0.0% | 0 pt gap |
Pro Basketball Eastern Conference #1 Seed
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $802 tradedKalshi: $272.1K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 43% | 22% | 21 pt gap |
| Philadelphia | 42% | 19% | 23 pt gap |
| Detroit | 27% | 13% | 14 pt gap |
| Cleveland | 22% | 10% | 12 pt gap |
| Miami | 20% | 8.0% | 12 pt gap |
| Toronto | 18% | 8.0% | 10 pt gap |
| Washington | 16% | 2.0% | 14 pt gap |
| Boston | 3.0% | 14% | 11 pt gap |
| Charlotte | 14% | 2.0% | 12 pt gap |
| Chicago | 12% | 1.0% | 11 pt gap |
| Brooklyn | 11% | 1.0% | 10 pt gap |
| Indiana | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
Michigan Senate margin of victory
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $58.7K traded
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. CD Huachipato - Halftime Result
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $61.6K tradedPolymarket US: $73 traded
Oscar Winner: Best Actor
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $13.3K tradedKalshi: $661.0K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Malkovich | 28% | 26% | 2 pt gap |
| Matt Damon | 25% | 26% | 1 pt gap |
| Tom Cruise | 18% | 19% | 1 pt gap |
| Robert Pattison | 1.0% | 17% | 16 pt gap |
| Andrew Scott | 13% | 14% | 1 pt gap |
| Jafar Jackson | 4.0% | 1.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Timothée Chalamet | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Jeremy Strong | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Keanu Reeves | 3.0% | 1.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Ryan Gosling | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Ethan Hawke | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Josh O'Connor | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $24.04M tradedPolymarket US: $17.4K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reporters Without Borders | 0.9% | 15% | 14 pt gap |
| Julian Assange | 0.5% | 11% | 11 pt gap |
| Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 9.1% | 10% | 1 pt gap |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 1.6% | 10% | 8 pt gap |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 7.5% | 9.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Save the Children | 6.6% | 8.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 2.1% | 8.0% | 6 pt gap |
| International Court of Justice | 5.5% | 4.0% | 1 pt gap |
| UNRWA | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Donald Trump | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Narendra Modi | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
NFC South Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $14.4K tradedKalshi: $625.2K traded
Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
Chance this happens — compared across sites
Polymarket US: $15.4K tradedKalshi: $606.3K traded
Liga MX Apertura Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $2.0K tradedKalshi: $699.6K traded
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $5.7K tradedKalshi: $4.07M traded
Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $8.1K tradedKalshi: $889.4K traded
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $1.28B tradedPolymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $217.64M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | 17% | 21% | 17% | 4 pt gap |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 19% | 18% | 16% | 3 pt gap |
| Gavin Newsom | 13% | 19% | 12% | 7 pt gap |
| Kamala Harris | 8.2% | 16% | 8.3% | 8 pt gap |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 1 pt gap |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2 pt gap |
| Mark Kelly | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 1 pt gap |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.2% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 3 pt gap |
| Andy Beshear | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1 pt gap |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1 pt gap |
| James Talarico | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1 pt gap |
| Wes Moore | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1 pt gap |
NE-01 House winner?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $22.0K traded
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $704.23M tradedPolymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $64.42M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 51% | 47% | 46% | 5 pt gap |
| Marco Rubio | 17% | 24% | 20% | 7 pt gap |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.4% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 7 pt gap |
| Donald Trump | 1.9% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 7 pt gap |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.5% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 3 pt gap |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.6% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 2 pt gap |
| Ted Cruz | 1.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1 pt gap |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 0.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 2 pt gap |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.9% | — | 1.4% | 1 pt gap |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.4% | — | 1.3% | 1 pt gap |
| Thomas Massie | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1 pt gap |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1 pt gap |
Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $342.9K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane | 58% | 65% | 7 pt gap |
| Alexander Volkov | 11% | 16% | 5 pt gap |
| Josh Hokit | 10% | 10% | 0 pt gap |
| Alex Pereira | 5.0% | 8.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Curtis Blaydes | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Jailton Almeida | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Marcin Tybura | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Jon Jones | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
NFC Championship Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $6.74M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles R | 17% | 16% | 1 pt gap |
| Seattle | 16% | 14% | 2 pt gap |
| Philadelphia | 13% | 12% | 1 pt gap |
| San Francisco | 13% | 12% | 1 pt gap |
| New York G | 12% | 5.0% | 7 pt gap |
| Chicago | 10% | 10% | 0 pt gap |
| Detroit | 9.0% | 8.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Dallas | 7.0% | 7.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Green Bay | 6.0% | 5.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Minnesota | 4.0% | 5.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Washington | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Carolina | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0 pt gap |
Serie A Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $242 tradedKalshi: $201.9K traded
Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $5.2K tradedKalshi: $362.5K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 87% | 94% | 7 pt gap |
| Azamat Murzakanov | 6.0% | 1.0% | 5 pt gap |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 3.0% | 1.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 3.0% | 1.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Jan Błachowicz | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Alex Pereira | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Jamahal Hill | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
Next French Presidential Election
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $133.75M tradedPolymarket US: $7.4K tradedKalshi: $324.1K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 35% | 37% | 42% | 7 pt gap |
| Édouard Philippe | 27% | 23% | 28% | 5 pt gap |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12% | 8.0% | 13% | 5 pt gap |
| David Lisnard | 7.3% | 10% | 11% | 4 pt gap |
| François Hollande | 4.0% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 5 pt gap |
| Gabriel Attal | 2.3% | 3.0% | 6.3% | 4 pt gap |
| Gérald Darmanin | 0.1% | — | 6.0% | 6 pt gap |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 0.1% | — | 6.0% | 6 pt gap |
| François Bayrou | 0.1% | — | 5.0% | 5 pt gap |
| Jordan Bardella | 2.1% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 0.7% | — | 2.4% | 2 pt gap |
| François Ruffin | 0.1% | — | 2.0% | 2 pt gap |
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $24.31M tradedPolymarket US: $913 traded
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $35.73M tradedPolymarket US: $118.7K tradedKalshi: $8.39M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 54% | 55% | 54% | 1 pt gap |
| Lamine Yamal | 24% | 24% | 27% | 3 pt gap |
| Kylian Mbappé | 11% | 17% | 11% | 6 pt gap |
| Rodri | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Lionel Messi | 2.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Erling Haaland | 0.3% | — | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Michael Olise | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Jude Bellingham | 0.1% | — | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Declan Rice | 0.1% | — | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Vitinha | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
College Football National Championship Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $270.2K tradedKalshi: $31.95M traded
Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $3.5K tradedKalshi: $358.8K traded
Berlin State Election Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $3.76M tradedKalshi: $16.8K traded
Montana Senate winner?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $726 tradedKalshi: $519.8K traded
Top artist on Spotify in 2026?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $17.2K tradedKalshi: $1.07M traded
Pro Basketball MVP Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $52.7K tradedKalshi: $1.36M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 31% | 31% | 0 pt gap |
| Luka Doncic | 15% | 20% | 5 pt gap |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 17% | 17% | 0 pt gap |
| Nikola Jokić | 11% | 13% | 2 pt gap |
| Jayson Tatum | 5.0% | 6.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 4.0% | 6.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Anthony Edwards | 5.0% | 6.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Jalen Brunson | 3.0% | 4.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Cade Cunningham | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Jaylen Brown | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Austin Reaves | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Evan Mobley | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $13.7K tradedKalshi: $812.1K traded
AFC Championship Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $88.0K tradedKalshi: $6.59M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 17% | 17% | 0 pt gap |
| Baltimore | 17% | 15% | 2 pt gap |
| Kansas City | 14% | 15% | 1 pt gap |
| Cincinnati | 15% | 10% | 5 pt gap |
| Houston | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Denver | 5.0% | 8.0% | 3 pt gap |
| New England | 7.0% | 8.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Jacksonville | 7.0% | 7.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Los Angeles C | 6.0% | 6.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Indianapolis | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Pittsburgh | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Cleveland | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
Michigan Governor winner?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $330.1K traded
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $37.41M tradedPolymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $188.8K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 54% | 53% | 54% | 1 pt gap |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 28% | 29% | 27% | 2 pt gap |
| Naftali Bennett | 8.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5 pt gap |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Yossi Cohen | 0.3% | — | 5.0% | 5 pt gap |
| Israel Katz | 0.1% | — | 4.0% | 4 pt gap |
| Benny Gantz | 0.1% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Gideon Sa’ar | 0.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Yoaz Hendel | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Yair Lapid | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Moshe Feiglin | 0.1% | — | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $33.49M tradedPolymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $2.93M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 19% | 23% | 23% | 5 pt gap |
| Arsenal | 14% | 17% | 16% | 3 pt gap |
| Bayern Munich | 16% | 14% | 14% | 1 pt gap |
| Real Madrid | 13% | 14% | 13% | 2 pt gap |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 13% | 13% | — | 1 pt gap |
| Manchester City | 8.5% | 11% | 9.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Liverpool | 5.5% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Manchester United | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Inter Milan | 2.9% | — | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Atlético Madrid | 2.1% | 2.0% | — | 0 pt gap |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Aston Villa | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
NL Rookie of the Year Winner?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $3.48M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sal Stewart | 89% | 93% | 4 pt gap |
| JJ Wetherholt | 9.0% | 7.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Nolan McLean | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Moises Ballesteros | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Justin Crawford | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Bryce Eldridge | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Konnor Griffin | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Owen Caissie | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Jonah Tong | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Carson Benge | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Rhett Lowder | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Jhostnyxon Garcia | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
Top Song on Spotify in 2026?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $268.0K traded
Flyweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $217.1K traded
NFC East Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $997 tradedKalshi: $1.31M traded
AFC West Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $12.7K tradedKalshi: $573.9K traded
Pro Football Coaches Out Before March
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $30.3K tradedKalshi: $6.8K traded
Oscar Winner: Best Picture
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $15.9K tradedKalshi: $5.68M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 56% | 53% | 3 pt gap |
| Dune: Part Three | 15% | 11% | 4 pt gap |
| Digger | 10% | 13% | 3 pt gap |
| The Black Ball | 8.0% | 9.0% | 1 pt gap |
| The Debut | 2.0% | 6.0% | 4 pt gap |
| Wild Horse Nine | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Fjord | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Project Hail Mary | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Josephine | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0 pt gap |
| The Social Reckoning | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Jack of Spades | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Disclosure Day | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
Pro Basketball Western Conference Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $25.1K tradedKalshi: $500.4K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | 36% | 34% | 2 pt gap |
| Oklahoma City | 34% | 35% | 1 pt gap |
| Minnesota | 8.0% | 9.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Denver | 9.0% | 5.0% | 4 pt gap |
| Los Angeles L | 6.0% | 7.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Houston | 3.0% | 4.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Portland | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Utah | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Golden State | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Los Angeles C | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Sacramento | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Dallas | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
Oscar winner: Best Actress
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $4.3K tradedKalshi: $238.9K traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julianne Moore | 62% | 63% | 1 pt gap |
| Inde Navarrette | 15% | 18% | 3 pt gap |
| Sandra Hüller | 6.0% | 7.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Renate Reinsve | 2.0% | 6.0% | 4 pt gap |
| Anne hathaway | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Cynthia Erivo | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Joan Collins | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Mikey Madison | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Natalie Portman | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Scarlett Johansson | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Kirsten Dunst | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Penélope Cruz | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $705.76M tradedKalshi: $66.32M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 24% | 22% | 2 pt gap |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13% | 9.3% | 4 pt gap |
| Jon Ossoff | 12% | 12% | 0 pt gap |
| Marco Rubio | 11% | 11% | 0 pt gap |
| Gavin Newsom | 7.8% | 7.8% | 0 pt gap |
| Kamala Harris | 4.5% | 4.1% | 0 pt gap |
| Josh Shapiro | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1 pt gap |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.6% | 3.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.8% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Mark Kelly | 1.8% | 2.7% | 1 pt gap |
| Andy Beshear | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2 pt gap |
| Donald Trump | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1 pt gap |
Fed Decision in September?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $165.61M tradedPolymarket US: $1.47M traded
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Chance this happens — compared across sites
Polymarket: $9.45M tradedPolymarket US: $0 traded
NBA: 2027 Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $21.70M tradedPolymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $27.95M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | 21% | 20% | 22% | 2 pt gap |
| Oklahoma City | 22% | 21% | 21% | 1 pt gap |
| New York | 12% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 4 pt gap |
| Philadelphia | 11% | 9.0% | 10% | 2 pt gap |
| Boston | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Minnesota | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Miami | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Denver | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Los Angeles L | 1.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Detroit | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Toronto | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Cleveland | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $226.3K traded
Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $226.0K traded
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $0 tradedKalshi: $885.8K traded
Heisman Trophy Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $137.9K tradedKalshi: $21.50M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darian Mensah | 20% | 17% | 3 pt gap |
| CJ Carr | 13% | 12% | 1 pt gap |
| Jeremiah Smith | 13% | 10% | 3 pt gap |
| Arch Manning | 12% | 10% | 2 pt gap |
| Malachi Toney | 6.0% | 7.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 7.0% | 7.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Sam Leavitt | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Gunner Stockton | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Jayden Maiava | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Josh Hoover | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Bear Bachmeier | 4.0% | 1.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Julian Sayin | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0 pt gap |
Men's 2027 College Basketball Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $40.9K tradedKalshi: $8.58M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 15% | 13% | 2 pt gap |
| Duke | 11% | 11% | 0 pt gap |
| Illinois | 7.0% | 6.5% | 1 pt gap |
| Michigan St. | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Arkansas | 6.0% | 3.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Gonzaga | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2 pt gap |
| Texas | 3.0% | 4.2% | 1 pt gap |
| Arizona | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1 pt gap |
| Houston | 2.0% | 3.3% | 1 pt gap |
| Louisville | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Michigan | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0 pt gap |
| St. John's | 3.0% | 2.8% | 0 pt gap |
Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $8.4K tradedKalshi: $1.89M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | 22% | 24% | 2 pt gap |
| New York | 19% | 21% | 2 pt gap |
| Boston | 12% | 12% | 0 pt gap |
| Miami | 10% | 7.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Toronto | 7.0% | 8.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Cleveland | 7.0% | 7.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Detroit | 7.0% | 6.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Indiana | 6.0% | 6.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Washington | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Atlanta | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Orlando | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Brooklyn | 3.0% | 1.0% | 2 pt gap |
NFC North Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $26.2K tradedKalshi: $780.8K traded
Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $1.9K tradedKalshi: $208.9K traded
EPL: 2027 Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $16.06M tradedPolymarket US: $54.6K tradedKalshi: $3.34M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 56% | 57% | 57% | 1 pt gap |
| Manchester City | 31% | 32% | 33% | 3 pt gap |
| Chelsea | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 3 pt gap |
| Liverpool | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Manchester United | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Coventry City | 0.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Brighton | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Tottenham | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Aston Villa | 0.4% | — | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Hull City | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Brentford | 0.3% | — | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Newcastle United | 0.3% | — | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
Pro Football: 2027 Champion
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 3 sites
Polymarket: $55.32M tradedPolymarket US: $2.6K tradedKalshi: $109.40M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles R | 12% | 13% | 13% | 2 pt gap |
| Buffalo | 11% | 9.0% | 10% | 2 pt gap |
| Kansas City | 9.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Baltimore | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0 pt gap |
| San Francisco | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Seattle | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Chicago | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Cincinnati | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Philadelphia | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Dallas | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Denver | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Detroit | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0 pt gap |
NL Cy Young Winner?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $29.0K tradedKalshi: $3.24M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 91% | 93% | 2 pt gap |
| Chris Sale | 3.1% | 5.0% | 2 pt gap |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Blake Snell | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Freddy Peralta | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Zack Wheeler | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Logan Webb | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Spencer Strider | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Brandon Woodruff | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Tyler Glasnow | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Jesus Luzardo | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
AFC North Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $5.8K tradedKalshi: $729.0K traded
NFC West Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $31.0K tradedKalshi: $578.1K traded
AFC East Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $14.5K tradedKalshi: $395.3K traded
When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $17.3K tradedKalshi: $2.58M traded
Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $10.2K tradedKalshi: $1.40M traded
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket: $7.75M tradedKalshi: $91.6K traded
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Chance this happens — compared across sites
Polymarket: $17.33M tradedManifold: $1.3K traded
NL MVP Winner?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $61.8K tradedKalshi: $4.11M traded
| Outcome | Polymarket US | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 96% | 98% | 2 pt gap |
| Shohei Ohtani | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0 pt gap |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Bryce Harper | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Rafael Devers | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Manny Machado | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Ketel Marte | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Mookie Betts | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Trea Turner | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
| Paul Skenes | 0.1% | 1.0% | 1 pt gap |
Nebraska Senate winner?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $1.6K tradedKalshi: $982.5K traded
AFC South Division Winner
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $3.5K tradedKalshi: $383.8K traded
Who will be arrested in 2026?
Chance each outcome wins — compared across 2 sites
Polymarket US: $1.5K tradedKalshi: $1.27M traded