Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political outcomes across venues. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | Volume ↓ | 24h Vol | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez19% Jon Ossoff17% +49 more | — | +1.2 pts | $1.28B | $498.4K | — | $77.55M | 2y |
| 2 |  Presidential Election Winner 2028 PolymarketPolitics | JD Vance24% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13% +50 more | — | -0.5 pts | $705.76M | $257.5K | — | $61.22M | 2y |
| 3 |  Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics | J.D. Vance51% Marco Rubio17% +40 more | — | — | $704.23M | $148.5K | — | $53.01M | 2y |
| 4 | 2028 Democratic presidential nominee KalshiPolitics | Jon Ossoff17% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15% +46 more | — | +1.0 pts | $217.65M | $30.7K | $703.6K | — | 2y |
| 5 |  Fed Decision in September? PolymarketPolitics | 25 bps increase88% No change13% +3 more | — | +8.0 pts | $165.78M | $18.36M | — | $14.07M | 19h |
| 6 |  Brazil Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Flávio Bolsonaro52% Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva46% +17 more | — | +0.6 pts | $149.87M | $431.7K | — | $18.51M | 18d |
| 7 |  Next French Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Marine Le Pen35% Édouard Philippe27% +39 more | — | +0.4 pts | $133.75M | $588.5K | — | $16.61M | 226d |
| 8 |  Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 313.8% September 301.1% | — | +0.1 pts | $67.15M | $107.9K | — | $994.6K | 108d |
| 9 | 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? KalshiPolitics | J.D. Vance23% Jon Ossoff12% +28 more | — | — | $66.32M | $13.1K | $344.7K | — | 3y |
| 10 |  Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No84% Yes17% | — | — | $66.11M | $127.1K | — | $920.1K | 108d |
| 11 | 2028 Republican presidential nominee KalshiPolitics | J.D. Vance46% Marco Rubio21% +36 more | — | +1.0 pts | $64.42M | $4.5K | $107.3K | — | 2y |
| 12 |  Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No96% Yes4.0% | — | -0.6 pts | $41.40M | $45.2K | — | $641.6K | 106d |
| 13 |  Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? PolymarketPolitics | Gadi Eizenkot54% Benjamin Netanyahu28% +17 more | — | +0.8 pts | $37.41M | $133.0K | — | $2.56M | 106d |
| 14 |  Israel closes its airspace by...? PolymarketPolitics | Yes97% No3.4% | — | -0.1 pts | $30.63M | $104.6K | — | $129.5K | 15d |
| 15 |  Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? PolymarketPolitics | September 1599% September 3092% +3 more | — | +1.4 pts | $29.94M | $89.9K | — | $332.1K | 107d |
| 16 |  US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3162% October 3134% +3 more | — | +1.5 pts | $28.38M | $236.7K | — | $494.6K | 108d |
| 17 |  Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? PolymarketPolitics | United Russia (ER)77% New People (NL)20% +6 more | — | -2.5 pts | $28.11M | $441.4K | — | $2.46M | 4d |
| 18 |  Iran leadership change by...? PolymarketPolitics | June 30, 202728% December 3116% +3 more | — | — | $25.32M | $24.8K | — | $744.4K | 288d |
| 19 |  Putin out as President of Russia by...? PolymarketPolitics | June 30, 202713% December 31, 20266.5% +1 more | — | — | $24.32M | $100.0K | — | $985.2K | 288d |
| 20 |  Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 PolymarketPolitics | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms8.9% Yulia Navalnaya7.5% +29 more | — | +4.7 pts | $24.04M | $125.6K | — | $1.75M | 24d |
| 21 |  Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No80% Yes21% | — | -14.0 pts | $17.33M | $1.19M | — | $451.4K | 108d |
| 22 | 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? KalshiPolitics | D-House, D-Senate51% D-House, R-Senate33% +2 more | — | +3.0 pts | $14.15M | $222.4K | $881.7K | — | 139d |
| 23 | California Governor winner? (Person) KalshiPolitics | Xavier Becerra97% Steve Hilton4.2% | — | +1.5 pts | $13.95M | $51.2K | $113.3K | — | 1y |
| 24 |  Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3122% October 3114% +2 more | — | +2.0 pts | $13.78M | $115.3K | — | $458.3K | 108d |
| 25 |  Los Angeles Mayoral Election PolymarketPolitics | Karen Bass65% Nithya Raman36% | — | -1.0 pts | $13.63M | $48.4K | — | $174.5K | 107d |
| 26 |  Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms PolymarketPolitics | Democrats Sweep53% R Senate, D House32% +3 more | — | — | $12.04M | $175.2K | — | $1.38M | 48d |
| 27 | Texas Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | James Talarico52% Ken Paxton50% | — | — | $11.96M | $76.6K | $152.2K | — | 1y |
| 28 |  Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? PolymarketPolitics | No83% Yes18% | — | — | $11.71M | $81.3K | — | $526.8K | 106d |
| 29 |  Trump out as President before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No94% Yes6.0% | — | -0.5 pts | $11.60M | $20.5K | — | $304.3K | 108d |
| 30 |  Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? PolymarketPolitics | March 31, 202757% December 31, 202641% +2 more | — | -1.0 pts | $11.29M | $80.1K | — | $304.4K | 197d |
| 31 |  Which party will win the House in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Democratic Party87% Republican Party14% | — | — | $11.09M | $77.0K | — | $1.64M | 48d |
| 32 | Which party will win the U.S. Senate? KalshiPolitics | Democratic Party53% Republican Party48% | — | +5.0 pts | $8.58M | $145.4K | $281.3K | — | 139d |
| 33 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? PolymarketPolitics | No99% Yes1.3% | — | — | $8.57M | $75.9K | — | $271.3K | 14d |
| 34 |  Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 31, 202770% November 30, 202766% +13 more | — | — | $7.62M | $52.8K | — | $905.8K | 288d |
| 35 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place PolymarketPolitics | Flávio Bolsonaro76% Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva25% +16 more | — | -1.0 pts | $7.14M | $107.6K | — | $2.13M | 18d |
| 36 | Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? PolymarketPolitics | No Meeting by September 3090% Pakistan3.8% +17 more | — | -1.4 pts | $5.69M | $21.8K | — | $801.5K | 15d |
| 37 | Maine Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Troy Jackson67% Susan Collins35% | — | +1.0 pts | $5.37M | $12.6K | $30.5K | — | 1y |
| 38 | Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? KalshiPolitics | Scott Jennings21% Maria Bartiromo15% +44 more | — | — | $4.95M | $8.2K | $68.8K | — | 2y |
| 39 |  Which party will win the Senate in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Democratic Party54% Republican Party48% | — | +1.0 pts | $4.45M | $49.9K | — | $587.3K | 48d |
| 40 | Kash Patel22% No78% | — | — | $4.07M | $4.2K | $13.9K | — | 108d | |
| 41 |  Berlin State Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Linke64% CDU28% +6 more | — | -4.0 pts | $3.76M | $94.4K | — | $661.1K | 4d |
| 42 | Michigan Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Abdul El-Sayed62% Mike Rogers39% | — | +1.0 pts | $3.54M | $11.7K | $23.4K | — | 1y |
| 43 | Ohio Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Sherrod Brown54% Jon Husted46% | — | +2.0 pts | $3.23M | $35.4K | $69.0K | — | 1y |
| 44 |  US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) PolymarketPolitics | September 3097% September 1897% +3 more | — | +2.9 pts | $3.16M | $698.3K | — | $176.5K | 15d |
| 45 | Iowa Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Ashley Hinson62% Josh Turek39% | — | — | $2.71M | $2.2K | $4.2K | — | 1y |
| 46 | Above 5224% 5016% +8 more | — | +2.0 pts | $2.59M | $4.2K | $27.4K | — | 139d | |
| 47 |  Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? PolymarketPolitics | Democratic65% Republican34% | — | -2.0 pts | $2.32M | $65.4K | — | $635.6K | 2y |
| 48 |  Elon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | 180-19971% 160-17925% +16 more | — | +39.5 pts | $2.00M | $525.5K | — | $598.2K | 11h |
| 49 |  Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? PolymarketPolitics | No86% Yes14% | — | -4.0 pts | $1.68M | $81.0K | — | $51.4K | 109d |
| 50 | Ohio Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Amy Acton55% Vivek Ramaswamy46% | — | -2.0 pts | $1.61M | $2.1K | $4.0K | — | 1y |
| 51 | Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? KalshiPolitics | Letitia James13% No87% | — | — | $1.57M | $2.3K | $9.2K | — | 108d |
| 52 | Democrats, 8 to 10%25% Democrats, 6 to 8%23% +8 more | — | +1.0 pts | $1.53M | $1.9K | $20.2K | — | 1y | |
| 53 | California Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Xavier Becerra97% Steve Hilton3.2% | — | +1.1 pts | $1.48M | $8.2K | $24.5K | — | 1y |
| 54 | New York Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Kathy Hochul92% Bruce Blakeman8.5% | — | -0.6 pts | $1.39M | $3.7K | $13.0K | — | 1y |
| 55 |  Will Xi Jinping visit US by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3195% October 3194% +4 more | — | +1.5 pts | $1.27M | $67.8K | — | $175.1K | 107d |
| 56 |  Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No77% Yes24% | — | +6.0 pts | $1.26M | $105.1K | — | $70.1K | 108d |
| 57 | Florida Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Byron Donalds81% David Jolly21% | — | +1.0 pts | $1.24M | $17.0K | $26.6K | — | 1y |
| 58 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place PolymarketPolitics | Augusto Cury44% Renan Santos40% +17 more | — | -11.5 pts | $1.15M | $44.1K | — | $848.7K | 18d |
| 59 | Wisconsin Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | David Crowley80% Tom Tiffany20% | — | -1.0 pts | $1.08M | $2.0K | $5.7K | — | 1y |
| 60 | Nebraska Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Pete Ricketts70% Dan Osborn29% +1 more | — | — | $982.5K | $46.6K | $111.1K | — | 1y |
| 61 |  Quebec General Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | PQ81% CAQ16% +4 more | — | +8.0 pts | $928.3K | $25.1K | — | $264.9K | 19d |
| 62 | Kansas Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Roger Marshall79% Adam Hamilton22% | — | — | $895.3K | $3.7K | $15.1K | — | 1y |
| 63 |  What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Iran Reconstruction Funding18% Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)12% +4 more | — | +4.0 pts | $890.7K | $16.7K | — | $274.0K | 108d |
| 64 | Trump out as President by September 30? PolymarketPolitics | No99% Yes0.5% | — | -0.4 pts | $875.9K | $103.3K | — | $154.0K | 15d |
| 65 | Cory Booker83% No17% | — | — | $849.7K | $7.4K | $10.3K | — | 1y | |
| 66 | Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | 180-19929% 200-21926% +20 more | — | +4.5 pts | $811.2K | $280.5K | — | $289.6K | 3d |
| 67 | Nevada Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Joe Lombardo54% Aaron Ford46% | — | -2.0 pts | $761.3K | $5.8K | $11.0K | — | 1y |
| 68 |  Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...? PolymarketPolitics | September 3088% September 2587% +4 more | — | +3.0 pts | $731.9K | $130.5K | — | $62.5K | 15d |
| 69 | Georgia Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Keisha Lance Bottoms56% Rick Jackson43% | — | +1.0 pts | $719.9K | $9.8K | $20.9K | — | 1y |
| 70 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? PolymarketPolitics | No93% Yes7.5% | — | +1.0 pts | $682.3K | $17.0K | — | $188.7K | 45d |
| 71 |  United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election? PolymarketPolitics | 325–33944% 340–35425% +5 more | — | -2.0 pts | $656.1K | $61.2K | — | $534.9K | 4d |
| 72 | Minnesota Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Peggy Flanagan90% Michele Tafoya11% | — | -0.1 pts | $634.4K | $5.7K | $19.4K | — | 1y |
| 73 | Florida Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Ashley Moody91% Angie Nixon9.6% | — | — | $632.8K | $11.0K | $19.9K | — | 1y |
| 74 | Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place PolymarketPolitics | Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)92% Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)5.1% +6 more | — | +1.0 pts | $603.8K | $34.3K | — | $702.0K | 4d |
| 75 | Blue wave in 2026? KalshiPolitics | Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?75% No25% | — | — | $592.9K | $2.0K | $2.7K | — | 139d |
| 76 | Will President Trump be impeached during his term? KalshiPolitics | Before Jan 20, 202967% No33% | — | +2.0 pts | $565.2K | $2.1K | $3.2K | — | 2y |
| 77 |  Bulgaria Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Iliana Iotova68% Аndrey Gyurov30% +12 more | — | +5.5 pts | $468.4K | $22.3K | — | $456.3K | 75d |
| 78 | Blue tsunami in 2026? KalshiPolitics | Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?41% No59% | — | — | $454.0K | $5.0K | $12.1K | — | 139d |
| 79 | New Hampshire Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Chris Pappas82% John E. Sununu18% | — | -3.0 pts | $427.2K | $4.5K | $23.0K | — | 1y |
| 80 |  Ohio Senate Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Sherrod Brown (D)54% Jon Husted (R)47% | — | +2.0 pts | $332.1K | $17.7K | — | $144.4K | 48d |
| 81 |  Iowa Senate Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Ashley Hinson (R)56% Josh Turek (D)43% | — | -4.0 pts | $301.9K | $28.9K | — | $128.0K | 48d |
| 82 |  Nebraska Senate Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Pete Ricketts (R)68% Independent33% +1 more | — | +0.5 pts | $272.3K | $28.2K | — | $261.8K | 48d |
| 83 | Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? PolymarketPolitics | Marine Le Pen88% Édouard Philippe46% +34 more | — | -0.5 pts | $155.7K | $19.1K | — | $683.4K | 226d |
| 84 | Elon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | 180-19919% 160-17918% +24 more | — | — | $154.3K | $68.6K | — | $305.9K | 7d |
| 85 |  Nevada Governor Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Aaron Ford (D)49% Joe Lombardo (R)49% | — | -0.5 pts | $151.6K | $23.5K | — | $67.3K | 48d |
| 86 |  Houthis enter Aden by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3139% October 3123% +1 more | — | +1.0 pts | $140.9K | $94.9K | — | $52.4K | 108d |
| 87 | Will Xi Jinping visit the United States? KalshiPolitics | Before Oct 1, 202696% No4.0% | — | +3.0 pts | $140.5K | $10.4K | $10.8K | — | 47d |
| 88 |  Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...? PolymarketPolitics | September 3046% September 152.4% | — | +0.5 pts | $136.7K | $76.9K | — | $76.6K | 15d |
| 89 | Below 5376% 5310% +5 more | — | -3.0 pts | $127.2K | $9.7K | $21.8K | — | 139d | |
| 90 |  Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? PolymarketPolitics | Jerry Moran47% Jacky Rosen41% +13 more | — | +37.0 pts | $96.7K | $24.5K | — | $31.3K | 108d |
| 91 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place KalshiPolitics | Flávio Bolsonaro75% Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva27% +12 more | — | -1.0 pts | $94.4K | $2.3K | $6.8K | — | 1y |
| 92 | How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? KalshiPolitics | Above 5041% No59% | — | -7.0 pts | $94.2K | $12.4K | $33.9K | — | 108d |
| 93 | Prime Minister of Sweden after the general election? KalshiPolitics | Magdalena Andersson88% Ulf Kristersson11% +2 more | — | -1.0 pts | $91.6K | $4.4K | $9.0K | — | 1y |
| 94 | Elon Musk # tweets September 14 - September 16, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | 40-6457% 65-8920% +8 more | — | +7.0 pts | $78.2K | $59.8K | — | $87.6K | 1d |
| 95 | Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? KalshiPolitics | Angela Alsobrooks30% No70% | — | +6.0 pts | $41.6K | $2.0K | $6.9K | — | 108d |
| 96 | How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? PolymarketPolitics | Above 5046% Above 5538% +6 more | — | -11.5 pts | $37.2K | $17.5K | — | $21.5K | 108d |
| 97 | College Football: #1 Ranked Team on Sep 20 AP Poll KalshiPolitics | Texas95% Georgia73% +11 more | — | +2.0 pts | $14.8K | $3.6K | $4.4K | — | 121d |