Politics Prediction Markets
Elections, legislation and political outcomes across venues. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | 24h Vol ↓ | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fed Decision in July? PolymarketPolitics | No change74% 25 bps increase25% +3 more | — | -0.2 pts | $2.94M | — | $3.99M | 3d |
| 2 |  Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? PolymarketPolitics | Abiy Ahmed94% Alesa Mengesha2.9% +6 more | — | -1.8 pts | $2.00M | — | $177.5K | Closed |
| 3 |  Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? PolymarketPolitics | July 23100% July 22100% +10 more | — | +1.0 pts | $1.56M | — | $465.8K | 37d |
| 4 |  Presidential Election Winner 2028 PolymarketPolitics | JD Vance20% Marco Rubio13% +48 more | — | +0.1 pts | $742.6K | — | $48.45M | 2y |
| 5 |  Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics | Gavin Newsom20% Jon Ossoff16% +49 more | — | — | $705.3K | — | $72.85M | 2y |
| 6 |  Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No70% Yes31% | — | — | $604.9K | — | $788.6K | 158d |
| 7 |  Iran leader end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Mojtaba Khamenei73% No Head of State7.4% +28 more | — | +0.4 pts | $483.6K | — | $1.66M | 158d |
| 8 |  Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? PolymarketPolitics | No99% Yes0.5% | — | -0.5 pts | $408.7K | — | $536.9K | 5d |
| 9 |  Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...? PolymarketPolitics | August 3194% July 3193% +2 more | — | +38.9 pts | $387.8K | — | $246.2K | Closed |
| 10 |  Israel closes its airspace by...? PolymarketPolitics | August 3146% August 1539% +2 more | — | -10.0 pts | $381.8K | — | $183.6K | Closed |
| 11 |  Elon Musk # tweets July 23 - July 25, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | 90-11472% 115-13916% +6 more | — | +48.4 pts | $375.6K | — | $84.1K | 15h |
| 12 | Elon Musk # tweets July 21 - July 28, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | 260-27922% 280-29922% +17 more | — | +8.1 pts | $372.2K | — | $388.0K | 3d |
| 13 |  Brazil Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva62% Flávio Bolsonaro23% +15 more | — | +1.0 pts | $296.3K | — | $9.28M | 70d |
| 14 |  Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3134% September 3023% +2 more | — | — | $278.7K | — | $306.2K | Closed |
| 15 |  Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics | J.D. Vance43% Marco Rubio28% +40 more | — | — | $267.4K | — | $55.53M | 2y |
| 16 | Iowa Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Ashley Hinson60% Josh Turek41% | — | -4.0 pts | $258.2K | $511.5K | — | 1y |
| 17 |  Iran leadership change by...? PolymarketPolitics | June 30, 202739% December 3128% +3 more | — | -1.0 pts | $221.0K | — | $244.3K | 158d |
| 18 | Michigan Democratic Senate nominee? KalshiPolitics | Abdul El-Sayed65% Haley Stevens37% +7 more | — | -13.0 pts | $196.0K | $429.2K | — | 101d |
| 19 |  Putin out as President of Russia by...? PolymarketPolitics | June 30, 202717% December 31, 20268.5% +3 more | — | — | $166.3K | — | $1.32M | 340d |
| 20 |  Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No68% Yes33% | — | -3.0 pts | $151.8K | — | $71.4K | 160d |
| 21 |  What will Trump say during WHCA Dinner? PolymarketPolitics | Fake News94% Hell 5+ times38% +17 more | — | +9.0 pts | $139.1K | — | $31.2K | Closed |
| 22 | Elon Musk # tweets July 24 - July 31, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | 180-19914% 200-21914% +23 more | — | -1.0 pts | $136.3K | — | $281.4K | 6d |
| 23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? PolymarketPolitics | No90% Yes11% | — | — | $123.8K | — | $351.5K | 36d |
| 24 |  Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...? PolymarketPolitics | August 1519% July 317.5% +1 more | — | -0.5 pts | $105.3K | — | $304.3K | 6d |
| 25 |  Next French Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Marine Le Pen31% Édouard Philippe27% +39 more | — | -0.6 pts | $98.4K | — | $11.83M | 278d |
| 26 |  Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner PolymarketPolitics | Abdul El-Sayed64% Haley Stevens33% +7 more | — | -15.5 pts | $95.5K | — | $325.3K | 9d |
| 27 |  Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No91% Yes9.5% | — | -1.0 pts | $93.2K | — | $810.5K | 158d |
| 28 |  US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? PolymarketPolitics | August 3143% August 1530% +2 more | — | -3.5 pts | $90.3K | — | $195.0K | 37d |
| 29 |  Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? PolymarketPolitics | No55% Yes46% | — | +6.0 pts | $81.2K | — | $70.0K | 161d |
| 30 |  Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 31, 202689% September 30, 202673% +2 more | — | -0.1 pts | $72.0K | — | $333.9K | Closed |
| 31 | Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026? KalshiPolitics | Troy Jackson99% No one1.0% +19 more | — | — | $69.0K | $115.9K | — | 7d |
| 32 |  Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? PolymarketPolitics | United Russia (ER)56% New People (NL)33% +5 more | — | — | $65.4K | — | $1.50M | 56d |
| 33 | 2028 Democratic presidential nominee KalshiPolitics | Gavin Newsom18% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15% +44 more | — | +2.0 pts | $59.2K | $903.9K | — | 2y |
| 34 |  Who will Trump meet with in July? PolymarketPolitics | Benjamin Netanyahu91% Elon Musk10% +6 more | — | +62.3 pts | $52.9K | — | $118.2K | 6d |
| 35 | Elon Musk # tweets July 25 - July 27, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | 40-6445% 65-8926% +8 more | — | — | $50.6K | — | $96.8K | 2d |
| 36 |  Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? PolymarketPolitics | Gadi Eizenkot49% Benjamin Netanyahu38% +16 more | — | -0.3 pts | $49.6K | — | $2.13M | 158d |
| 37 |  Venezuela leader end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Nicolás Maduro83% Delcy Rodríguez9.0% +14 more | — | +1.6 pts | $45.0K | — | $2.00M | 158d |
| 38 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? PolymarketPolitics | Yes52% No49% | — | -1.0 pts | $44.4K | — | $273.3K | 158d |
| 39 |  Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? PolymarketPolitics | August 3139% August 1539% +1 more | — | +6.0 pts | $41.4K | — | $96.1K | 6d |
| 40 | Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? PolymarketPolitics | No Meeting by September 3034% Switzerland25% +17 more | — | +7.1 pts | $39.5K | — | $629.9K | 67d |
| 41 |  US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No91% Yes9.0% | — | +1.0 pts | $38.1K | — | $20.9K | 158d |
| 42 | Fed Decision in September? PolymarketPolitics | 25 bps increase54% No change41% +3 more | — | +2.0 pts | $36.6K | — | $591.4K | 52d |
| 43 | South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner? KalshiPolitics | Darline Graham68% Ralph Norman18% +9 more | — | -2.0 pts | $33.2K | $163.8K | — | 1y |
| 44 | Texas Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Ken Paxton58% James Talarico44% | — | — | $33.1K | $63.0K | — | 1y |
| 45 |  Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No96% Yes3.9% | — | — | $30.2K | — | $586.5K | 158d |
| 46 |  Will Russia enter Serhiivka by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3178% July 316.0% | — | +0.5 pts | $29.9K | — | $15.0K | 158d |
| 47 | When will Trump and Netanyahu meet? KalshiPolitics | Before Aug 1, 202692% No8.0% | — | +66.0 pts | $29.5K | $32.1K | — | 7d |
| 48 | No100% Yes0.2% | — | — | $28.9K | — | $291 | Closed | |
| 49 |  Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3137% October 3123% +1 more | — | — | $26.4K | — | $240.7K | 158d |
| 50 |  Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3187% September 3084% +2 more | — | -1.0 pts | $26.2K | — | $98.5K | 158d |
| 51 | Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? KalshiPolitics | Todd Blanche91% Lee Zeldin4.0% +20 more | — | +5.0 pts | $25.6K | $47.8K | — | 2y |
| 52 |  US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...? PolymarketPolitics | August 3125% July 316.5% +1 more | — | -1.0 pts | $24.3K | — | $104.8K | 6d |
| 53 |  South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner PolymarketPolitics | Darline Graham Nordone70% Ralph Norman21% +12 more | — | -1.3 pts | $24.3K | — | $407.0K | 16d |
| 54 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place PolymarketPolitics | Flávio Bolsonaro74% Renan Santos11% +15 more | — | -0.5 pts | $21.6K | — | $781.8K | 70d |
| 55 |  Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3114% October 316.5% +2 more | — | — | $21.6K | — | $253.4K | 158d |
| 56 | Elon Musk # tweets in July 2026? PolymarketPolitics | 800-83929% 840-87926% +49 more | — | +8.2 pts | $21.4K | — | $371.9K | 7d |
| 57 |  Which party will win the Senate in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Republican Party56% Democratic Party44% | — | — | $20.0K | — | $616.3K | 100d |
| 58 |  US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3114% September 306.5% +1 more | — | — | $19.8K | — | $153.4K | 158d |
| 59 |  CA-37 House Election Winner (Individual) PolymarketPolitics | Sydney Kamlager-Dove94% Samantha Mota2.5% | — | +4.7 pts | $19.6K | — | $64.0K | 101d |
| 60 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? PolymarketPolitics | No96% Yes4.0% | — | -0.3 pts | $19.5K | — | $288.2K | 66d |
| 61 | Florida Republican Governor nominee? KalshiPolitics | Byron Donalds97% James Fishback2.9% +7 more | — | -0.6 pts | $18.1K | $283.0K | — | 101d |
| 62 |  Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No96% Yes4.0% | — | -0.6 pts | $17.8K | — | $27.8K | 158d |
| 63 | Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee? KalshiPolitics | Francesca Hong80% David Crowley13% +9 more | — | +2.0 pts | $16.6K | $33.8K | — | 101d |
| 64 | Will the SAVE Act become law? KalshiPolitics | Before Jan 4, 20276.2% No94% | — | -1.4 pts | $16.4K | $264.5K | — | 163d |
| 65 |  Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote % PolymarketPolitics | Binface 10–20%46% Binface <10%28% +3 more | — | +15.0 pts | $14.0K | — | $146.1K | 340d |
| 66 | Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County Winner PolymarketPolitics | Haley Stevens96% Abdul El-Sayed3.6% | — | +27.0 pts | $13.7K | — | $44.8K | 9d |
| 67 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No89% Yes12% | — | -1.0 pts | $13.2K | — | $227.5K | 1y |
| 68 |  Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner PolymarketPolitics | Byron Donalds97% James Fishback2.8% +5 more | — | +0.7 pts | $12.6K | — | $336.4K | 23d |
| 69 |  Andrew Tate released from custody by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3122% July 313.5% | — | -5.0 pts | $12.1K | — | $37.2K | 158d |
| 70 |  Trump out as President by July 31? PolymarketPolitics | No100% Yes0.4% | — | — | $11.9K | — | $320.4K | 6d |
| 71 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No98% Yes1.7% | — | +0.1 pts | $11.7K | — | $107.3K | 66d |
| 72 |  Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No96% Yes4.3% | — | -0.1 pts | $11.3K | — | $245.0K | 158d |
| 73 | Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26) KalshiPolitics | Above 2097% No3.0% | — | +2.0 pts | $11.2K | $19.4K | — | 3d |
| 74 | 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? KalshiPolitics | J.D. Vance18% Marco Rubio18% +28 more | — | — | $11.1K | $245.4K | — | 3y |
| 75 | Jon Ossoff for Senate Total Receipts (Q3) KalshiPolitics | Above $20M95% No5.0% | — | +26.0 pts | $11.1K | $14.6K | — | 83d |
| 76 | Maine Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Democratic party65% Republican party37% | — | +1.0 pts | $11.0K | $26.0K | — | 1y |
| 77 | At least 20%94% No6.0% | — | +1.0 pts | $10.1K | $15.6K | — | 1y | |
| 78 | Before Aug 8, 202642% No58% | — | -14.0 pts | $8.3K | $19.8K | — | 14d | |
| 79 | 2028 Republican presidential nominee KalshiPolitics | J.D. Vance40% Marco Rubio31% +36 more | — | +1.0 pts | $8.1K | $684.9K | — | 2y |
| 80 | Which party will win the U.S. Senate? KalshiPolitics | Republican Party57% Democratic Party45% | — | — | $6.9K | $12.4K | — | 191d |
| 81 | Michigan Senate winner? (Person) KalshiPolitics | Abdul El-Sayed50% Mike Rogers32% +2 more | — | -6.0 pts | $6.6K | $20.3K | — | 1y |
| 82 | Kash Patel33% No67% | — | — | $6.5K | $13.5K | — | 160d | |
| 83 | South Carolina96% New Hampshire3.5% +10 more | — | +76.0 pts | $6.3K | $17.1K | — | 2y | |
| 84 | How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Jul 2026? KalshiPolitics | 096% 13.0% +3 more | — | -1.0 pts | $6.1K | $20.9K | — | 7d |
| 85 | Georgia Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Keisha Lance Bottoms60% Rick Jackson41% | — | +3.0 pts | $6.1K | $13.6K | — | 1y |
| 86 | At least 1%42% No58% | — | -4.0 pts | $6.0K | $20.2K | — | 1y | |
| 87 | Talarico for Texas Total Receipts (Q3) KalshiPolitics | Above $25M97% No3.0% | — | +40.0 pts | $5.6K | $6.9K | — | 83d |
| 88 | Before election day 202615% No85% | — | +1.0 pts | $4.9K | $32.7K | — | 101d | |
| 89 | Above 199% No1.0% | — | +43.0 pts | $4.0K | $6.0K | — | 14d | |
| 90 | Massachusetts Democratic Senate nominee? KalshiPolitics | Ed Markey73% Seth Moulton27% +2 more | — | — | $3.5K | $6.0K | — | 101d |
| 91 | Before August 1, 20260.1% No100% | — | — | $3.5K | $47.6K | — | 2y | |
| 92 | 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? KalshiPolitics | D-House, D-Senate43% D-House, R-Senate39% +2 more | — | +1.0 pts | $3.2K | $17.1K | — | 191d |
| 93 | Guam Governor winner? KalshiPolitics | Josh Tenorio37% Therese Terlaje33% +3 more | — | +3.0 pts | $3.2K | $28.2K | — | 1y |
| 94 | North Carolina Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Roy Cooper91% Michael Whatley10% | — | +0.3 pts | $3.0K | $10.4K | — | 1y |
| 95 | Minnesota Republican Governor nominee? KalshiPolitics | Lisa Demuth52% Mike Lindell48% +6 more | — | +7.0 pts | $2.8K | $6.4K | — | 101d |
| 96 | California Governor winner? (Person) KalshiPolitics | Xavier Becerra95% Steve Hilton5.0% | — | — | $2.7K | $46.7K | — | 1y |
| 97 | Who will visit the White House in 2026? KalshiPolitics | Eric Adams9.3% No91% | — | — | $2.7K | $3.5K | — | 160d |
| 98 | Georgia Senate winner? KalshiPolitics | Jon Ossoff92% Mike Collins9.9% | — | +0.5 pts | $2.4K | $14.3K | — | 1y |
| 99 | Will President Trump be impeached during his term? KalshiPolitics | Before Jan 20, 202962% No38% | — | -4.0 pts | $2.3K | $3.8K | — | 2y |
| 100 | How many states will Trump visit in Jul 2026? KalshiPolitics | 1075% 916% +3 more | — | +15.0 pts | $2.2K | $7.0K | — | 7d |
