Economics Prediction Markets
Fed decisions, inflation, rates and macro releases. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | 24h Vol ↓ | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fed Decision in July? PolymarketPolitics | No change74% 25 bps increase25% +3 more | — | -0.2 pts | $2.94M | — | $3.99M | 3d |
| 2 | Fed decision in Jul 2026? KalshiEconomics | Fed maintains rate75% Hike 25bps25% +3 more | — | -1.0 pts | $598.1K | $1.76M | — | 4d |
| 3 |  Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? PolymarketPolitics | No99% Yes0.5% | — | -0.5 pts | $408.7K | — | $536.9K | 5d |
| 4 |  Largest Company end of July? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA69% Apple28% +6 more | — | -21.0 pts | $350.0K | — | $1.27M | 6d |
| 5 |  How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? PolymarketEconomics | 0 (0 bps)85% 1 (25 bps)9.5% +11 more | — | +0.1 pts | $101.4K | — | $2.55M | 158d |
| 6 |  Fed rate hike in 2026? PolymarketEconomics | Yes72% No28% | — | -3.0 pts | $62.1K | — | $168.9K | 136d |
| 7 |  Fed rate hike by...? PolymarketEconomics | October Meeting68% September Meeting61% +1 more | — | -0.5 pts | $47.0K | — | $85.4K | 95d |
| 8 | 2nd Largest Company end of July? PolymarketEconomics | Apple70% NVIDIA29% +6 more | — | -21.0 pts | $45.9K | — | $211.7K | 6d |
| 9 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? PolymarketPolitics | Yes52% No49% | — | -1.0 pts | $44.4K | — | $273.3K | 158d |
| 10 | Fed Decision in September? PolymarketPolitics | 25 bps increase54% No change41% +3 more | — | +2.0 pts | $36.6K | — | $591.4K | 52d |
| 11 |  July Inflation US - Annual PolymarketEconomics | 3.3%38% 3.4%37% +10 more | — | +8.5 pts | $21.0K | — | $141.4K | 18d |
| 12 |  Bank of Japan Decision in July? PolymarketEconomics | No change97% 25 bps increase2.5% +3 more | — | +0.9 pts | $18.2K | — | $77.4K | 5d |
| 13 | Largest Company end of December 2026? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA62% Apple26% +6 more | — | -3.0 pts | $15.4K | — | $869.0K | 158d |
| 14 | Largest Company end of August? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA61% Apple32% +6 more | — | -17.5 pts | $14.4K | — | $410.4K | 37d |
| 15 |  Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) PolymarketEconomics | Pause–Pause–Pause72% Other26% +1 more | — | -0.2 pts | $13.9K | — | $64.5K | 3d |
| 16 | Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting? KalshiEconomics | Above 2.75%99% No1.0% | — | — | $13.6K | $118.1K | — | 4d |
| 17 | Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) PolymarketEconomics | Other61% Pause–Pause–Pause39% +3 more | — | +1.0 pts | $12.7K | — | $99.3K | 52d |
| 18 | 3rd Largest Company end of August? PolymarketEconomics | Alphabet89% Apple7.0% +6 more | — | -2.5 pts | $11.5K | — | $280.6K | 37d |
| 19 |  Bank of Russia decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | No Change76% Decrease17% +1 more | — | +33.0 pts | $11.3K | — | $19.9K | 48d |
| 20 | Inflation in July 2026 (CPI YoY) KalshiEconomics | Above 3.0%97% No3.0% | — | -2.0 pts | $9.9K | $26.5K | — | 18d |
| 21 | 3rd Largest Company end of July? PolymarketEconomics | Alphabet99% Apple0.5% +6 more | — | +0.9 pts | $8.9K | — | $219.3K | 6d |
| 22 |  US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026? PolymarketEconomics | 5%+95% 6%+94% +4 more | — | +4.5 pts | $7.9K | — | $11.9K | 5d |
| 23 |  Fed rate cut by...? PolymarketEconomics | December Meeting14% October Meeting8.0% +2 more | — | — | $7.0K | — | $289.1K | Closed |
| 24 | US gasoline CPI for July KalshiEconomics | Above 300ㅤ96% No4.0% | — | — | $5.5K | $31.5K | — | 18d |
| 25 | CPI in July KalshiEconomics | Above -0.4%97% No3.0% | — | — | $4.7K | $16.9K | — | 18d |
| 26 | Fed decision in Sep 2026? KalshiEconomics | Hike 25bps50% Fed maintains rate46% +3 more | — | +2.0 pts | $4.4K | $11.0K | — | 53d |
| 27 |  Elon Musk Net Worth on July 31? PolymarketEconomics | <$0.70T45% $0.70-$0.80T35% +5 more | — | +13.7 pts | $4.3K | — | $56.6K | 6d |
| 28 |  July Inflation US - Monthly PolymarketEconomics | ≥0.1%67% 0.0%25% +7 more | — | -0.5 pts | $4.3K | — | $49.4K | 18d |
| 29 | Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) PolymarketEconomics | Other71% Pause–Pause–Pause28% +7 more | — | -1.0 pts | $4.1K | — | $246.6K | 95d |
| 30 | Bank of Japan Decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | No change72% 25 bps increase28% +3 more | — | +14.5 pts | $3.8K | — | $33.8K | 55d |
| 31 |  US economic state at the end of 2026? PolymarketEconomics | Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)58% Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)24% +2 more | — | +3.5 pts | $3.8K | — | $16.6K | 189d |
| 32 |  Bank of England decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | No change66% 25 bps increase35% +3 more | — | +8.5 pts | $2.8K | — | $12.7K | 54d |
| 33 |  Bank of Mexico Decision in August? PolymarketEconomics | No change88% 25 bps decrease8.6% +3 more | — | -2.5 pts | $2.7K | — | $27.8K | 11d |
| 34 |  ECB Interest Rates: September 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase79% No change11% +3 more | — | -3.0 pts | $2.7K | — | $40.2K | 47d |
| 35 | Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY) KalshiEconomics | Above 2.1%89% No11% | — | -10.0 pts | $2.5K | $4.8K | — | 18d |
| 36 |  Largest Indian Company at end of 2026? PolymarketEconomics | Reliance Industries Ltd93% Hindustan Unilever Ltd4.5% +14 more | — | +22.5 pts | $2.2K | — | $47.5K | 159d |
| 37 |  Warsh out as Fed Chair by…? PolymarketPolitics | June 30, 20278.5% December 31, 20266.5% | — | — | $2.1K | — | $40.0K | 159d |
| 38 | 2nd Largest Company end of August? PolymarketEconomics | Apple62% NVIDIA29% +6 more | — | +4.5 pts | $2.1K | — | $205.4K | 37d |
| 39 | How high will inflation get this year? KalshiEconomics | At least 4.5%48% No52% | — | +7.9 pts | $2.1K | $5.3K | — | 204d |
| 40 | Fed Decision in October? PolymarketEconomics | No change54% 25 bps increase32% +3 more | — | — | $2.1K | — | $271.2K | 95d |
| 41 | Bank of Mexico Decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | No change91% 25 bps decrease7.5% +3 more | — | -1.0 pts | $2.0K | — | $20.4K | 61d |
| 42 | US GDP growth in Q2 2026? KalshiEconomics | Above 0.0%99% No1.0% | — | — | $2.0K | $4.1K | — | 5d |
| 43 |  What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | ↑ 4.25%41% ↑ 4.5%15% +18 more | — | +0.9 pts | $2.0K | — | $162.2K | 158d |
| 44 |  Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28? PolymarketEconomics | 300M99% 285M87% +4 more | — | +1.8 pts | $1.9K | — | $16.6K | 46d |
| 45 |  China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026? PolymarketEconomics | 4.3-4.6%43% 4.6-4.9%38% +7 more | — | +4.0 pts | $1.7K | — | $26.1K | 86d |
| 46 | State of the economy at the end of 2026 KalshiEconomics | Soft landing60% Overheating26% +2 more | — | -4.5 pts | $1.7K | $2.8K | — | 172d |
| 47 |  What will the median home value in New York City be on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | $636K - $663K40% $609K - $636K39% +5 more | — | +3.0 pts | $1.6K | — | $9.2K | 67d |
| 48 | What will the median home value in the US be on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | $419K - $426K33% <$419K30% +5 more | — | +3.5 pts | $1.5K | — | $8.8K | 67d |
| 49 | Fed rate cut before 2027? KalshiEconomics | Cuts18% No82% | — | +0.6 pts | $1.5K | $8.3K | — | 160d |
| 50 |  Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August PolymarketEconomics | No change62% 25 bps increase34% +3 more | — | +8.0 pts | $1.5K | — | $20.6K | 16d |
| 51 |  Bank of Canada Decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | No Change83% 25 bps increase12% +3 more | — | +3.1 pts | $1.5K | — | $9.5K | 38d |
| 52 |  Central Bank of Colombia decision in July? PolymarketEconomics | 50+ bps increase81% 25 bps increase13% +3 more | — | +5.0 pts | $1.4K | — | $12.2K | 5d |
| 53 |  Bank of Brazil decision in August? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps decrease80% No Change21% +3 more | — | +4.0 pts | $1.4K | — | $36.6K | 9d |
| 54 | China Annual GDP Growth 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 4.0–5.0%86% 5.0–6.0%11% +8 more | — | — | $1.4K | — | $170.8K | Closed |
| 55 |  How high will inflation get in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Above 4.5%25% Above 5%15% +3 more | — | +1.0 pts | $1.3K | — | $50.6K | 158d |
| 56 | What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | $335K - $340K35% $330K - $335K25% +5 more | — | +3.5 pts | $1.2K | — | $13.8K | 67d |
| 57 | What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | <$446K36% $446K - $454K22% +5 more | — | -12.0 pts | $1.1K | — | $10.3K | 67d |
| 58 |  USMCA extended in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No67% Yes33% | — | +10.5 pts | $1.0K | — | $3.2K | 159d |
| 59 | What will the median home value in Miami be on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | $1.089M - $1.125M37% $1.125M - $1.161M36% +5 more | — | +0.5 pts | $1.0K | — | $10.5K | 67d |
| 60 | Bank of England decision in July? PolymarketEconomics | No change98% 25 bps increase1.8% +3 more | — | +0.7 pts | $1.0K | — | $24.5K | 4d |
| 61 |  Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026? PolymarketEconomics | 0.4-0.6%55% 0.7-0.9%29% +4 more | — | +5.0 pts | $1.0K | — | $5.1K | 5d |
| 62 |  Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 2.8-3.0%34% 3.1%+28% +7 more | — | +3.4 pts | $984 | — | $10.6K | 177d |
| 63 |  Will gas hit __ by end of July? PolymarketEconomics | ↑ $4.2536% ↑ $4.505.3% +7 more | — | -19.0 pts | $862 | — | $11.5K | 5d |
| 64 | Core PCE YoY - June 2026 PolymarketEconomics | ≤3.3%72% 3.4%21% +5 more | — | -4.5 pts | $725 | — | $14.3K | 5d |
| 65 |  US x Cuba economic deal by...? PolymarketEconomics | December 3147% July 312.1% | — | -5.5 pts | $691 | — | $7.9K | Closed |
| 66 |  Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in September? PolymarketPolitics | Increase89% No Change5.5% +1 more | — | -2.5 pts | $691 | — | $13.2K | 38d |
| 67 |  NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | No86% Yes14% | — | — | $672 | — | $7.0K | 158d |
| 68 |  Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No97% Yes2.6% | — | — | $669 | — | $70.2K | 158d |
| 69 |  What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | $1.153M - $1.169M33% $1.169M - $1.185M20% +5 more | — | -5.5 pts | $554 | — | $10.2K | 67d |
| 70 |  Price of Dozen Eggs in July? PolymarketEconomics | $2.00–$2.2581% $2.25–$2.5012% +8 more | — | +3.0 pts | $537 | — | $26.8K | 18d |
| 71 |  China Annual Inflation 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 0.6 – 1.0%43% 1.1 – 1.5%43% +7 more | — | — | $526 | — | $22.6K | 168d |
| 72 | Will US unemployment be 25% or more before 2030? ManifoldEconomics | Yes12% No88% | — | — | M$788 | — | $10 | 3y |
| 73 | Yes9.7% No90% | — | — | M$519 | — | $51 | 67d |