Economics Prediction Markets
Fed decisions, inflation, rates and macro releases. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | Volume ↓ | 24h Vol | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fed Decision in September? PolymarketPolitics | 25 bps increase88% No change13% +3 more | — | +8.0 pts | $165.61M | $18.24M | — | $13.91M | 19h |
| 2 |  How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? PolymarketEconomics | 0 (0 bps)94% 1 (25 bps)4.7% +11 more | — | +0.4 pts | $52.48M | $103.3K | — | $3.78M | 106d |
| 3 |  Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? PolymarketPolitics | No83% Yes18% | — | — | $11.71M | $81.3K | — | $465.8K | 106d |
| 4 |  Fed rate hike in 2026? PolymarketEconomics | Yes92% No8.5% | — | +5.0 pts | $9.45M | $249.9K | — | $271.8K | 84d |
| 5 |  Largest Company end of December 2026? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA68% Apple24% +6 more | — | -3.5 pts | $7.27M | $65.9K | — | $1.31M | 106d |
| 6 |  Fed rate cut by...? PolymarketEconomics | December Meeting7.0% October Meeting3.3% +1 more | — | +0.5 pts | $3.52M | $34.3K | — | $389.2K | 115d |
| 7 |  Fed rate hike by...? PolymarketEconomics | October Meeting89% September Meeting87% | — | +6.0 pts | $3.48M | $102.4K | — | $304.0K | 43d |
| 8 | Recession this year? KalshiEconomics | Starts3.0% No97% | — | -3.0 pts | $3.47M | $436 | $14.5K | — | 138d |
| 9 | Fed Decision in October? PolymarketEconomics | No change62% 25 bps increase37% +3 more | — | — | $2.26M | $390.4K | — | $1.44M | 43d |
| 10 | Largest Company end of September? PolymarketEconomics | NVIDIA84% Apple16% +7 more | — | -8.1 pts | $1.83M | $74.2K | — | $1.12M | 15d |
| 11 |  US recession by end of 2026? PolymarketEconomics | No92% Yes8.5% | — | — | $1.75M | $3.1K | — | $26.8K | 106d |
| 12 | Fed rate cut before 2027? KalshiEconomics | Cuts8.7% No91% | — | +0.2 pts | $1.21M | $212 | $2.4K | — | 108d |
| 13 |  Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) PolymarketEconomics | Other88% Pause–Pause–Pause12% +1 more | — | +9.0 pts | $871.8K | $1.9K | — | $115.2K | 19h |
| 14 |  Bank of Japan Decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase98% No change1.1% +3 more | — | -0.5 pts | $815.2K | $41.8K | — | $82.4K | 3d |
| 15 | Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) PolymarketEconomics | Other89% Pause–Pause–Pause12% +3 more | — | +4.5 pts | $767.5K | $6.4K | — | $206.5K | 43d |
| 16 | How high will unemployment get in 2026? KalshiEconomics | Above 4.5%15% No85% | — | -1.0 pts | $759.1K | $9 | $60 | — | 115d |
| 17 | Fed Decision in December? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase57% No change40% +3 more | — | — | $746.6K | $37.3K | — | $708.6K | 85d |
| 18 | Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? KalshiEconomics | In 20263.0% No97% | — | -1.0 pts | $606.3K | $224 | $7.5K | — | 108d |
| 19 | How high will inflation get this year? KalshiEconomics | At least 4.5%32% No68% | — | -1.1 pts | $484.8K | $128 | $481 | — | 152d |
| 20 |  How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | 5.0%98% 5.1%65% +4 more | — | +7.7 pts | $413.1K | $22.1K | — | $27.4K | 106d |
| 21 | Recession in 2027? KalshiEconomics | Yes22% No78% | — | — | $408.4K | $380 | $1.7K | — | 1y |
| 22 | US real GDP growth in 2026? KalshiEconomics | 1.6% to 2.0%35% 2.1% to 2.5%31% +12 more | — | +7.9 pts | $385.2K | $29 | $106 | — | 166d |
| 23 |  Bank of England decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | No change94% 25 bps increase5.5% +3 more | — | -0.8 pts | $287.2K | $3.6K | — | $24.4K | 2d |
| 24 |  How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | Below 3.8%7.2% Below 3.9%7.1% +6 more | — | -2.2 pts | $266.6K | $7.4K | — | $31.6K | 106d |
| 25 | Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026? KalshiPolitics | Kevin Hassett11% No89% | — | — | $235.3K | $0 | $15 | — | 108d |
| 26 | 3rd Largest Company end of September? PolymarketEconomics | Alphabet93% Microsoft4.5% +7 more | — | — | $179.1K | $1.7K | — | $213.4K | 15d |
| 27 | Will there be a Trump economic boom? KalshiEconomics | Above 5%23% No77% | — | — | $178.0K | $5 | $21 | — | 2y |
| 28 | Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? KalshiEconomics | Before Jan 1, 20276.1% No94% | — | -3.7 pts | $177.9K | $7 | $107 | — | 108d |
| 29 | Which countries will have a recession before 2027? KalshiEconomics | United Kingdom11% No89% | — | +7.3 pts | $173.8K | $1 | $9 | — | 1y |
| 30 | Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting? KalshiEconomics | Above 0.00%99% No1.0% | — | — | $150.2K | $1.1K | $1.4K | — | 225d |
| 31 |  Bank of Brazil decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps decrease98% No Change1.9% +3 more | — | -0.1 pts | $148.6K | $4.2K | — | $10.7K | 7h |
| 32 |  ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 PolymarketEconomics | No change52% 25 bps increase49% +3 more | — | -1.5 pts | $131.5K | $12.5K | — | $18.6K | 44d |
| 33 | 2nd Largest Company end of September? PolymarketEconomics | Apple84% NVIDIA14% +7 more | — | -4.5 pts | $119.8K | $11.6K | — | $141.8K | 15d |
| 34 |  Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 3.1%+81% 2.5–2.7%2.9% +7 more | — | — | $113.8K | $1.2K | — | $45.1K | 125d |
| 35 |  Brazil Annual Inflation 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 5.00-5.49%47% 4.50-4.99%41% +8 more | — | +2.2 pts | $112.1K | $2.4K | — | $20.5K | 118d |
| 36 |  U.K. Annual Inflation 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 3.5–3.9%27% 2.5–2.9%11% +7 more | — | — | $99.1K | $7.8K | — | $19.1K | 126d |
| 37 |  UK Annual GDP Growth 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 1-2%76% 0-1%14% +5 more | — | -13.2 pts | $85.5K | $2.0K | — | $8.9K | 149d |
| 38 |  Bank of Canada Decision in October? PolymarketEconomics | No Change64% 25 bps increase35% +3 more | — | -9.7 pts | $80.4K | $7.6K | — | $12.6K | 42d |
| 39 |  What will the median home value in Miami be on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | $1.125M - $1.161M46% $1.089M - $1.125M36% +5 more | — | +14.4 pts | $76.3K | $2.0K | — | $5.8K | 14d |
| 40 | What will the median home value in New York City be on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | $663K - $689K79% $636K - $663K13% +5 more | — | +2.1 pts | $74.3K | $1.2K | — | $5.3K | 14d |
| 41 |  Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase84% No change13% +3 more | — | -6.0 pts | $73.6K | $980 | — | $9.8K | 14d |
| 42 | Bank of England decision in November? PolymarketEconomics | No change52% 25 bps increase49% +3 more | — | +7.0 pts | $72.1K | $6.2K | — | $10.8K | 51d |
| 43 | What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | $518K - $524K36% $524K - $530K34% +5 more | — | +4.3 pts | $65.3K | $1.0K | — | $6.3K | 14d |
| 44 |  What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30? PolymarketEconomics | $1.153M - $1.169M41% $1.137M - $1.153M31% +5 more | — | +15.2 pts | $64.2K | $880 | — | $5.5K | 14d |
| 45 |  Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 0.8-1.1%66% 1.2-1.5%21% +5 more | — | +8.0 pts | $62.2K | $1.4K | — | $5.1K | 45d |
| 46 |  USD x Iranian rials End of September? PolymarketEconomics | 2.2M+89% 2.1-2.2M8.3% +5 more | — | +3.5 pts | $57.2K | $5.2K | — | $33.5K | 15d |
| 47 |  South Africa Annual Inflation 2026 PolymarketEconomics | >5.0%36% 4.7-5.0%28% +8 more | — | +8.5 pts | $54.4K | $6.7K | — | $11.8K | 126d |
| 48 | Fed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting? KalshiEconomics | Above 0.00%99% No1.0% | — | — | $53.4K | $505 | $544 | — | 134d |
| 49 |  Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25? PolymarketEconomics | 280M19% 270M10% +3 more | — | -42.8 pts | $48.2K | $2.9K | — | $18.2K | 22d |
| 50 |  Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November PolymarketEconomics | No change73% 25 bps increase25% +3 more | — | +11.0 pts | $46.2K | $1.1K | — | $5.5K | 49d |
| 51 | Fed funds rate at end of 2027 KalshiEconomics | Above 1.00%98% No2.0% | — | — | $41.1K | $637 | $1.2K | — | 1y |
| 52 | How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September? PolymarketEconomics | 5.00%85% 5.05%56% +1 more | — | +3.5 pts | $35.2K | $4.9K | — | $3.2K | 15d |
| 53 | How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September? PolymarketEconomics | Below 4.76%5.9% Below 4.64%5.0% +7 more | — | -12.6 pts | $35.1K | $4.8K | — | $18.1K | 15d |
| 54 | Fed decision in Jun 2027? KalshiEconomics | Cut 25bps88% Fed maintains rate55% +3 more | — | +82.0 pts | $33.0K | $7.0K | $8.0K | — | 267d |
| 55 | Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) PolymarketEconomics | Hike–Pause–Hike25% Hike–Hike–Pause23% +7 more | — | -1.0 pts | $29.2K | $2.2K | — | $90.8K | 85d |
| 56 | USD x Iranian rials End of September? (Higher Strikes) PolymarketEconomics | 2.2 to 2.5M59% 2.5 to 2.8M26% +3 more | — | — | $23.0K | $4.4K | — | $15.3K | 15d |
| 57 |  Bank of Russia decision in October? PolymarketEconomics | No Change49% Decrease48% +1 more | — | +3.5 pts | $20.4K | $1.2K | — | $16.8K | 38d |
| 58 | How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September? PolymarketEconomics | 5.39%62% 5.42%53% +4 more | — | -9.5 pts | $19.9K | $1.9K | — | $4.4K | 15d |
| 59 | How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September? PolymarketEconomics | 4.83%87% 4.90%56% | — | +24.5 pts | $19.8K | $858 | — | $767 | 15d |
| 60 |  Core PCE YoY - August 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 3.2%27% 3.4%24% +5 more | — | -6.0 pts | $17.4K | $1.2K | — | $4.5K | 15d |
| 61 |  Bank of Israel Decision in October? PolymarketEconomics | No Change83% Decrease18% +1 more | — | +7.0 pts | $17.0K | $2.1K | — | $5.9K | 35d |
| 62 | How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September? PolymarketEconomics | Below 5.09%26% Below 5.00%21% +7 more | — | +4.0 pts | $16.2K | $2.2K | — | $4.9K | 15d |
| 63 | How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | 5.40%93% 5.45%81% +7 more | — | — | $14.4K | $1.1K | — | $9.4K | 106d |
| 64 |  ISM Services PMI - September 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 53.0 to 53.925% 54.0 to 54.919% +8 more | — | +11.0 pts | $13.1K | $3.8K | — | $2.3K | 20d |
| 65 | September Inflation US - Annual PolymarketEconomics | 3.5%39% 3.6%37% +10 more | — | +1.0 pts | $12.8K | $5.5K | — | $19.6K | 29d |
| 66 | How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? PolymarketEconomics | 4.85%91% 4.90%86% +4 more | — | -1.0 pts | $12.0K | $5.7K | — | $3.8K | 106d |
| 67 |  PPI YoY - September 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 5.9%+30% 5.7%18% +8 more | — | -16.5 pts | $8.7K | $4.0K | — | $8.4K | 30d |
| 68 |  Reserve Bank of India decision in October PolymarketEconomics | No Change48% 25 bps increase47% +3 more | — | -5.0 pts | $8.1K | $1.8K | — | $2.8K | 21d |
| 69 |  September Inflation US - Monthly PolymarketEconomics | 0.5%37% 0.4%34% +7 more | — | +2.5 pts | $8.1K | $1.5K | — | $9.1K | 29d |
| 70 |  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - September 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 46.0 to 48.960% 43.0 to 45.928% +5 more | — | +4.0 pts | $7.6K | $4.3K | — | $3.2K | 10d |
| 71 |  Swiss National Bank decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | No Change95% 25 bps increase3.9% +3 more | — | +2.8 pts | $7.1K | $839 | — | $5.8K | 8d |
| 72 | Yes32% No68% | — | — | $6.8K | M$3.0K | — | $52 | 1y | |
| 73 | Bank of Canada Decision in December? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase51% No Change48% +3 more | — | +17.0 pts | $5.5K | $1.9K | — | $5.2K | 84d |
| 74 |  How many jobs added in September? PolymarketEconomics | 50k to 100k30% 0 to 50k25% +5 more | — | +1.5 pts | $4.6K | $1.1K | — | $15.4K | 17d |
| 75 |  September Inflation China - Annual PolymarketEconomics | 0.9% to 1.0%39% 0.7% to 0.8%35% +3 more | — | +2.0 pts | $4.5K | $4.3K | — | $1.8K | 29d |
| 76 | Bank of Russia decision in December? PolymarketEconomics | No change40% 25 bps decrease28% +3 more | — | — | $2.0K | $2.0K | — | $2.4K | 94d |
| 77 | 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026? ManifoldEconomics | Yes83% No17% | — | — | $63 | M$1.0K | — | $2 | 1d |
| 78 | Yes3.1% No97% | — | — | $34 | M$1.7K | — | $10 | 68d | |
| 79 | Jerome Powell Announced Out as Fed Governor? Polymarket USPolitics | Yes6.0% No5.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 107d |
| 80 | Fed Rate Cut in 2026? Polymarket USEconomics | Yes13% No12% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 107d |
| 81 | Fed Rate Hike in 2026? Polymarket USEconomics | Yes88% No87% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 107d |
| 82 | Fed Decision in October Polymarket USEconomics | No Change60% 25 bps Increase39% +3 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 43d |
| 83 | Fed Decision in September Polymarket USEconomics | 25 bps Increase86% No Change14% +1 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1d |
| 84 | US GDP Growth in Q3 2026? Polymarket USEconomics | Above 0.0%96% Above 0.5%96% +4 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 44d |
| 85 | Lisa Cook Officially Out as Fed Governor? Polymarket USPolitics | Yes49% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 107d |
| 86 | Jobs Numbers in September 2026 Polymarket USEconomics | Above 087% Above 50,00062% +4 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17d |
| 87 | September Unemployment Rate Polymarket USEconomics | Above 3.7%98% Above 3.8%95% +7 more | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17d |