World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics, conflict and global events. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | Volume ↓ | 24h Vol | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez19% Jon Ossoff17% +49 more | — | +1.2 pts | $1.28B | $455.8K | — | $77.52M | 2y |
| 2 |  Presidential Election Winner 2028 PolymarketPolitics | JD Vance24% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13% +50 more | — | -0.5 pts | $705.76M | $256.2K | — | $61.11M | 2y |
| 3 |  Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics | J.D. Vance51% Marco Rubio17% +40 more | — | — | $704.23M | $149.4K | — | $53.14M | 2y |
| 4 |  Brazil Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Flávio Bolsonaro52% Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva46% +17 more | — | +0.6 pts | $149.87M | $431.2K | — | $18.44M | 18d |
| 5 |  Next French Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Marine Le Pen35% Édouard Philippe27% +39 more | — | +0.4 pts | $133.75M | $587.2K | — | $16.57M | 226d |
| 6 |  Netanyahu out by...? PolymarketPolitics | Yes53% No48% | — | -1.0 pts | $124.29M | $15.5K | — | $93.8K | 108d |
| 7 |  Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? PolymarketWorld | December 316.5% September 301.4% | — | — | $73.27M | $59.8K | — | $256.4K | 108d |
| 8 |  Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No84% Yes17% | — | — | $66.11M | $130.1K | — | $706.4K | 108d |
| 9 |  Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No96% Yes4.0% | — | -0.6 pts | $41.40M | $44.5K | — | $576.8K | 106d |
| 10 |  MLB World Series Champion 2026 PolymarketSports | Los Angeles Dodgers31% Milwaukee Brewers16% +23 more | — | -1.0 pts | $40.56M | $63.0K | — | $3.50M | 46d |
| 11 |  Iran leader end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Mojtaba Khamenei83% No Head of State4.8% +28 more | — | -1.8 pts | $39.45M | $11.5K | — | $1.45M | 106d |
| 12 |  Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? PolymarketPolitics | Gadi Eizenkot54% Benjamin Netanyahu28% +17 more | — | +0.8 pts | $37.41M | $132.7K | — | $2.55M | 106d |
| 13 |  Israel closes its airspace by...? PolymarketPolitics | Yes97% No3.4% | — | -0.1 pts | $30.63M | $104.5K | — | $126.2K | 15d |
| 14 |  Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? PolymarketPolitics | September 1599% September 3092% +3 more | — | +1.4 pts | $29.94M | $89.8K | — | $337.9K | 107d |
| 15 |  US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3162% October 3134% +3 more | — | +1.5 pts | $28.38M | $236.7K | — | $504.3K | 108d |
| 16 |  Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? PolymarketPolitics | United Russia (ER)77% New People (NL)20% +6 more | — | -2.5 pts | $28.10M | $425.8K | — | $2.44M | 4d |
| 17 |  Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No93% Yes7.5% | — | — | $25.90M | $8.3K | — | $533.6K | 108d |
| 18 |  Putin out as President of Russia by...? PolymarketPolitics | June 30, 202713% December 31, 20266.5% +1 more | — | — | $24.31M | $84.9K | — | $910.2K | 288d |
| 19 |  Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 PolymarketPolitics | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms9.1% Yulia Navalnaya7.5% +29 more | — | +5.0 pts | $24.04M | $125.6K | — | $1.75M | 24d |
| 20 |  Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? PolymarketWorld | No96% Yes4.5% | — | -0.5 pts | $21.92M | $2.2K | — | $129.4K | 108d |
| 21 |  Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3122% October 3114% +2 more | — | +2.0 pts | $13.78M | $112.0K | — | $422.0K | 108d |
| 22 |  Xi Jinping out before 2027? PolymarketWorld | No96% Yes3.5% | — | — | $13.24M | $8.0K | — | $219.6K | 108d |
| 23 |  Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? PolymarketPolitics | No83% Yes18% | — | — | $11.71M | $81.3K | — | $465.8K | 106d |
| 24 |  Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? PolymarketPolitics | March 31, 202757% December 31, 202641% +2 more | — | -1.0 pts | $11.29M | $80.9K | — | $298.9K | 197d |
| 25 |  Which party will win the House in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Democratic Party87% Republican Party14% | — | — | $11.09M | $77.0K | — | $1.63M | 48d |
| 26 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? PolymarketPolitics | No99% Yes1.3% | — | -0.1 pts | $8.57M | $75.9K | — | $269.9K | 14d |
| 27 |  Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 31, 202770% November 30, 202766% +13 more | — | — | $7.62M | $52.8K | — | $902.3K | 288d |
| 28 |  How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | 476% 55.9% +10 more | — | -10.7 pts | $7.42M | $2.3K | — | $176.8K | 108d |
| 29 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place PolymarketPolitics | Flávio Bolsonaro76% Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva25% +16 more | — | -1.0 pts | $7.14M | $107.0K | — | $2.15M | 18d |
| 30 |  NATO x Russia military clash by...? PolymarketWorld | December 3125% October 3113% | — | +5.0 pts | $6.80M | $24.0K | — | $88.4K | 108d |
| 31 |  Which party will win the Senate in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Democratic Party54% Republican Party48% | — | +1.0 pts | $4.45M | $49.9K | — | $572.2K | 48d |
| 32 |  Berlin State Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Linke64% CDU28% +6 more | — | -4.0 pts | $3.76M | $93.9K | — | $648.0K | 4d |
| 33 | Russia Parliamentary Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | United Russia (ER)99% New People (NL)0.4% +6 more | — | — | $3.72M | $6.7K | — | $883.9K | 4d |
| 34 |  Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No meeting before 202793% US1.8% +12 more | — | +1.0 pts | $3.50M | $14.5K | — | $729.4K | 108d |
| 35 |  China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? PolymarketWorld | No94% Yes6.5% | — | -0.4 pts | $3.35M | $4.7K | — | $100.2K | 108d |
| 36 |  Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No93% Yes7.5% | — | — | $3.18M | $2.3K | — | $116.8K | 106d |
| 37 | US-Iran nuclear deal? KalshiPolitics | Before Oct 1, 20261.0% No99% | — | — | $3.17M | $1.7K | $26.9K | — | 2y |
| 38 |  US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) PolymarketPolitics | September 3097% September 1897% +3 more | — | +2.6 pts | $3.13M | $672.2K | — | $166.8K | 15d |
| 39 |  Will Russia capture Lyman by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 319.5% September 301.7% | — | -5.0 pts | $3.04M | $10.0K | — | $33.0K | 108d |
| 40 |  Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No92% Yes8.5% | — | — | $2.73M | $1.8K | — | $75.3K | 108d |
| 41 |  Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? PolymarketWorld | October 3144% September 3023% +2 more | — | +5.5 pts | $2.41M | $70.1K | — | $156.2K | 46d |
| 42 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No100% Yes0.4% | — | — | $2.13M | $5.4K | — | $82.1K | 15d |
| 43 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? KalshiPolitics | Reza Pahlavi4.0% No96% | — | — | $1.83M | $4 | $94 | — | 108d |
| 44 | Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? KalshiPolitics | Yes6.0% No94% | — | -0.4 pts | $1.66M | $152 | $2.5K | — | 108d |
| 45 |  Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | Lebanon8.5% Somaliland7.5% +10 more | — | — | $1.63M | $1.9K | — | $176.1K | 108d |
| 46 |  Iran Nuke before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No94% Yes6.3% | — | +0.4 pts | $1.30M | $2.1K | — | $97.9K | 108d |
| 47 |  Will Xi Jinping visit US by...? PolymarketPolitics | October 3194% December 3193% +4 more | — | +0.4 pts | $1.27M | $68.3K | — | $168.2K | 107d |
| 48 |  Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No77% Yes24% | — | +6.0 pts | $1.26M | $104.6K | — | $57.0K | 108d |
| 49 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place PolymarketPolitics | Augusto Cury44% Renan Santos40% +17 more | — | -11.7 pts | $1.15M | $41.1K | — | $862.8K | 18d |
| 50 |  Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | China52% No meeting by December 3134% +13 more | — | -3.5 pts | $1.11M | $4.8K | — | $443.5K | 108d |
| 51 |  Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | AfD84% SPD16% +6 more | — | +1.0 pts | $1.06M | $11.4K | — | $454.4K | 4d |
| 52 | Before 20275.8% No94% | — | +0.4 pts | $1.03M | $4 | $64 | — | 108d | |
| 53 |  Who will Trump meet with in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Mohammed bin Salman69% Delcy Rodríguez68% +13 more | — | -0.5 pts | $1.02M | $3.2K | — | $220.8K | 108d |
| 54 |  Quebec General Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | PQ81% CAQ16% +4 more | — | +8.0 pts | $928.3K | $25.1K | — | $269.5K | 19d |
| 55 |  Will Russia capture Sumy by...? PolymarketWorld | No93% Yes7.0% | — | -0.5 pts | $868.4K | $1.0K | — | $23.3K | 197d |
| 56 |  Bank of Japan Decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase98% No change1.1% +3 more | — | -0.5 pts | $815.2K | $41.8K | — | $82.4K | 3d |
| 57 | US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? KalshiTech & Science | Grants license5.1% No95% | — | -4.2 pts | $789.3K | $19 | $372 | — | 108d |
| 58 |  Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...? PolymarketPolitics | September 3088% September 1787% +4 more | — | +3.0 pts | $731.4K | $132.4K | — | $34.1K | 15d |
| 59 | 2030 FIFA World Cup Champion KalshiSports | Spain11% France11% +80 more | — | +0.5 pts | $687.8K | $21 | $315 | — | 4y |
| 60 |  United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election? PolymarketPolitics | 325–33943% 340–35425% +5 more | — | -2.5 pts | $655.3K | $60.4K | — | $542.8K | 4d |
| 61 |  Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No95% Yes5.5% | — | — | $638.3K | $1.3K | — | $21.2K | 106d |
| 62 | Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? PolymarketPolitics | Flavio Bolsonaro96% Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva95% +7 more | — | -1.4 pts | $610.3K | $6.9K | — | $211.0K | 18d |
| 63 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory PolymarketPolitics | Lula da Silva <5%46% Flávio Bolsonaro <5%28% +9 more | — | +6.5 pts | $477.4K | $7.9K | — | $382.2K | 18d |
| 64 |  Bulgaria Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Iliana Iotova68% Аndrey Gyurov30% +12 more | — | +5.5 pts | $468.4K | $22.3K | — | $488.4K | 75d |
| 65 | Before 20275.0% No95% | — | — | $466.1K | $46 | $920 | — | 108d | |
| 66 | Saudi Arabia5.0% No95% | — | — | $352.2K | $5 | $46 | — | 108d | |
| 67 |  Lecornu out as French PM by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 31, 202636% September 30, 20260.7% | — | +2.0 pts | $351.4K | $997 | — | $11.7K | 108d |
| 68 | Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? KalshiWorld | Hottest78% No22% | — | +0.5 pts | $343.3K | $241 | $310 | — | 108d |
| 69 | Will Iran become a democracy in 2026? KalshiPolitics | Yes1.9% No98% | — | — | $305.5K | — | — | — | 167d |
| 70 | No92% Yes8.1% | — | +3.0 pts | $244.9K | $9.4K | — | $64.4K | 18d | |
| 71 | Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran? KalshiPolitics | Before 20273.9% No96% | — | +1.5 pts | $223.1K | $1 | $29 | — | 108d |
| 72 |  US x China Military clash before 2027? PolymarketWorld | No96% Yes3.8% | — | -1.0 pts | $210.3K | $2.1K | — | $29.8K | 108d |
| 73 | Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? KalshiPolitics | Gadi Eizenkot54% Benjamin Netanyahu27% +16 more | — | -2.0 pts | $188.8K | $530 | $1.9K | — | 1y |
| 74 |  Houthis enter Aden by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3139% October 3123% +1 more | — | +1.5 pts | $140.8K | $94.8K | — | $50.2K | 108d |
| 75 |  Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...? PolymarketPolitics | September 3047% September 152.4% | — | +1.0 pts | $136.6K | $76.8K | — | $77.1K | 15d |
| 76 |  Brazil Annual Inflation 2026 PolymarketEconomics | 5.00-5.49%47% 4.50-4.99%41% +8 more | — | +2.2 pts | $112.1K | $2.4K | — | $20.5K | 118d |
| 77 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place PolymarketPolitics | Linke88% CDU9.5% +6 more | — | -1.5 pts | $103.3K | $5.5K | — | $154.2K | 4d |
| 78 |  Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No85% Yes16% | — | — | $78.9K | $2.5K | — | $20.0K | 107d |
| 79 |  Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share? PolymarketPolitics | 8-11%49% <8%20% +2 more | — | +2.0 pts | $73.8K | $4.0K | — | $55.3K | 5d |
| 80 |  Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September PolymarketEconomics | 25 bps increase84% No change13% +3 more | — | -6.0 pts | $73.6K | $980 | — | $9.8K | 14d |
| 81 |  Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share? PolymarketPolitics | <8%83% 8-11%16% +2 more | — | +5.5 pts | $64.4K | $2.2K | — | $76.8K | 5d |
| 82 | When will nuclear fusion be achieved? KalshiTech & Science | Before 203033% No67% | — | — | $47.7K | $683 | $1.9K | — | 13y |
| 83 |  Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November PolymarketEconomics | No change73% 25 bps increase25% +3 more | — | +11.0 pts | $46.2K | $1.1K | — | $5.5K | 49d |
| 84 |  Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share? PolymarketPolitics | <10%56% 10-13%35% +2 more | — | -1.3 pts | $35.1K | $1.4K | — | $37.5K | 5d |
| 85 |  Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No62% Yes39% | — | +4.5 pts | $31.0K | $3.2K | — | $581 | 108d |
| 86 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share? PolymarketPolitics | 38%+53% 35-38%31% +2 more | — | +3.0 pts | $30.8K | $2.9K | — | $13.2K | 5d |
| 87 | Above 2200.0% No100% | — | — | $25.4K | $537 | $1.5K | — | 108d | |
| 88 | Quebec General Election: Second Place PolymarketPolitics | PLQ53% CAQ44% +4 more | — | +31.0 pts | $25.2K | $8.0K | — | $49.3K | 19d |
| 89 |  Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats? PolymarketPolitics | 20-2428% 25-2928% +5 more | — | +3.5 pts | $17.5K | $1.6K | — | $26.7K | 20d |
| 90 | Quebec General Election: Third Place PolymarketPolitics | PLQ43% CAQ34% +4 more | — | -27.5 pts | $13.4K | $2.5K | — | $24.6K | 19d |
| 91 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%? PolymarketPolitics | Over83% Under17% | — | +0.5 pts | $10.0K | $939 | — | $10.3K | 5d |
| 92 |  Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Alexandre Leduc63% Maude Brossard-Sabourin31% +3 more | — | -22.0 pts | $9.3K | $2.3K | — | $34.2K | 20d |
| 93 | SPD91% Linke75% +6 more | — | -5.1 pts | $6.4K | $1.2K | — | $19.0K | 107d | |
| 94 |  Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place PolymarketPolitics | SNSD74% SDP BiH16% +5 more | — | -6.0 pts | $4.3K | $1.1K | — | $1.8K | 19d |
| 95 |  Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority? PolymarketPolitics | No77% Yes24% | — | +9.5 pts | $3.8K | $2.4K | — | $18.8K | 20d |
| 96 | Yes5.4% No95% | — | — | $209 | M$10.2K | — | $110 | 108d |