World Prediction Markets
Geopolitics, conflict and global events. Ranked by 24-hour volume across venues.
| # | Market | Odds | 7d | 24h | 24h Vol ↓ | 24h Face | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? PolymarketPolitics | July 23100% July 22100% +10 more | — | +1.0 pts | $1.56M | — | $465.8K | 37d |
| 2 |  World Cup Final: U.S. Viewership PolymarketSports | 46m-50m100% 58m+0.1% | — | +4.5 pts | $955.6K | — | $1.77M | Closed |
| 3 |  Presidential Election Winner 2028 PolymarketPolitics | JD Vance20% Marco Rubio13% +48 more | — | +0.1 pts | $742.6K | — | $48.45M | 2y |
| 4 |  Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics | Gavin Newsom20% Jon Ossoff16% +49 more | — | — | $705.3K | — | $72.85M | 2y |
| 5 |  Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No70% Yes31% | — | — | $604.9K | — | $788.6K | 158d |
| 6 |  Iran leader end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | Mojtaba Khamenei73% No Head of State7.4% +28 more | — | +0.4 pts | $483.6K | — | $1.66M | 158d |
| 7 |  Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? PolymarketPolitics | No99% Yes0.5% | — | -0.5 pts | $408.7K | — | $536.9K | 5d |
| 8 |  Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...? PolymarketPolitics | August 3194% July 3193% +2 more | — | +38.9 pts | $387.8K | — | $246.2K | Closed |
| 9 |  Israel closes its airspace by...? PolymarketPolitics | August 3146% August 1539% +2 more | — | -10.0 pts | $381.8K | — | $183.6K | Closed |
| 10 |  Brazil Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva62% Flávio Bolsonaro23% +15 more | — | +1.0 pts | $296.3K | — | $9.28M | 70d |
| 11 |  Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3134% September 3023% +2 more | — | — | $278.7K | — | $306.2K | Closed |
| 12 |  Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? PolymarketWorld | August 3110.0% July 313.0% | — | +1.3 pts | $276.5K | — | $338.2K | Closed |
| 13 |  Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 PolymarketPolitics | J.D. Vance43% Marco Rubio28% +40 more | — | — | $267.4K | — | $55.53M | 2y |
| 14 |  Iran full airspace closure by...? PolymarketWorld | August 3153% August 1544% +3 more | — | -8.5 pts | $261.5K | — | $96.8K | 37d |
| 15 |  Iran leadership change by...? PolymarketPolitics | June 30, 202739% December 3128% +3 more | — | -1.0 pts | $221.0K | — | $244.3K | 158d |
| 16 |  US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause) PolymarketWorld | August 3152% August 1433% +2 more | — | — | $196.9K | — | $297.7K | 37d |
| 17 |  Putin out as President of Russia by...? PolymarketPolitics | June 30, 202717% December 31, 20268.5% +3 more | — | — | $166.3K | — | $1.32M | 340d |
| 18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? PolymarketPolitics | No90% Yes11% | — | — | $123.8K | — | $351.5K | 36d |
| 19 |  Iran invades Kuwait by...? PolymarketWorld | August 313.3% July 311.3% | — | -4.7 pts | $109.1K | — | $153.6K | 37d |
| 20 |  Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...? PolymarketPolitics | August 1519% July 317.5% +1 more | — | -0.5 pts | $105.3K | — | $304.3K | 6d |
| 21 |  Next French Presidential Election PolymarketPolitics | Marine Le Pen31% Édouard Philippe27% +39 more | — | -0.6 pts | $98.4K | — | $11.83M | 278d |
| 22 |  Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No91% Yes9.5% | — | -1.0 pts | $93.2K | — | $810.5K | 158d |
| 23 |  Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...? PolymarketWorld | July 3188% July 2484% | — | +36.0 pts | $92.9K | — | $42.9K | 6d |
| 24 |  US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? PolymarketPolitics | August 3143% August 1530% +2 more | — | -3.5 pts | $90.3K | — | $195.0K | 37d |
| 25 |  US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...? PolymarketWorld | August 3164% August 1543% +2 more | — | +0.5 pts | $89.3K | — | $237.7K | 37d |
| 26 |  Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 31, 202689% September 30, 202673% +2 more | — | -0.1 pts | $72.0K | — | $333.9K | Closed |
| 27 |  Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? PolymarketPolitics | United Russia (ER)56% New People (NL)33% +5 more | — | — | $65.4K | — | $1.50M | 56d |
| 28 |  Will Russia capture Sumy by...? PolymarketWorld | No94% Yes6.0% | — | -2.0 pts | $51.1K | — | $20.3K | 248d |
| 29 |  Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? PolymarketPolitics | Gadi Eizenkot49% Benjamin Netanyahu38% +16 more | — | -0.3 pts | $49.6K | — | $2.13M | 158d |
| 30 |  NATO x Russia military clash by...? PolymarketWorld | No77% Yes24% | — | +5.0 pts | $48.5K | — | $55.6K | 158d |
| 31 |  US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No91% Yes9.0% | — | +1.0 pts | $38.1K | — | $20.9K | 158d |
| 32 |  Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No96% Yes3.9% | — | — | $30.2K | — | $586.5K | 158d |
| 33 | Hurricane Fausto category? KalshiWorld | Category 1 or above99% No1.0% | — | — | $22.1K | $38.2K | — | 130d |
| 34 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place PolymarketPolitics | Flávio Bolsonaro74% Renan Santos11% +15 more | — | -0.5 pts | $21.6K | — | $781.8K | 70d |
| 35 |  Bank of Japan Decision in July? PolymarketEconomics | No change97% 25 bps increase2.5% +3 more | — | +0.9 pts | $18.2K | — | $77.4K | 5d |
| 36 |  Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No96% Yes4.0% | — | -0.6 pts | $17.8K | — | $27.8K | 158d |
| 37 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No89% Yes12% | — | -1.0 pts | $13.2K | — | $227.5K | 1y |
| 38 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No98% Yes1.7% | — | +0.1 pts | $11.7K | — | $107.3K | 66d |
| 39 |  Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? PolymarketPolitics | No92% Yes8.0% | — | +0.5 pts | $11.0K | — | $43.2K | Closed |
| 40 |  Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 PolymarketPolitics | Yulia Navalnaya11% UNRWA8.2% +18 more | — | — | $10.0K | — | $2.38M | 76d |
| 41 |  Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No92% Yes8.5% | — | — | $9.5K | — | $148.6K | 158d |
| 42 | Rain in Houston in Jul 2026? KalshiWorld | Above 1 inch99% No1.0% | — | — | $9.3K | $16.3K | — | 7d |
| 43 |  Berlin State Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | Linke33% CDU27% +6 more | — | -0.5 pts | $9.1K | — | $426.4K | 56d |
| 44 |  Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? PolymarketPolitics | No93% Yes7.0% | — | +2.5 pts | $8.6K | — | $47.6K | 37d |
| 45 |  Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...? PolymarketPolitics | No91% Yes9.5% | — | — | $7.9K | — | $173.1K | 158d |
| 46 |  Netanyahu out by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3144% July 310.4% | — | -1.0 pts | $7.4K | — | $118.9K | 158d |
| 47 | Russia Parliamentary Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | United Russia (ER)96% New People (NL)1.6% +5 more | — | +0.4 pts | $7.4K | — | $660.6K | 56d |
| 48 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No75% Yes26% | — | +2.0 pts | $6.9K | — | $59.4K | 158d |
| 49 |  Xi Jinping out before 2027? PolymarketWorld | No95% Yes4.9% | — | -0.1 pts | $6.0K | — | $213.2K | 158d |
| 50 |  Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No90% Yes11% | — | -1.5 pts | $5.5K | — | $39.4K | 158d |
| 51 |  Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? PolymarketWorld | No89% Yes12% | — | -5.5 pts | $5.1K | — | $32.8K | 158d |
| 52 |  Ukraine election held by...? PolymarketPolitics | No92% Yes8.0% | — | — | $4.7K | — | $15.5K | Closed |
| 53 | Before 203035% No65% | — | -42.0 pts | $4.6K | $13.2K | — | 3y | |
| 54 |  Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | Somaliland25% Syria16% +10 more | — | -0.5 pts | $4.3K | — | $146.2K | 158d |
| 55 |  Jimmy Lai released by...? PolymarketPolitics | No96% Yes3.8% | — | -1.4 pts | $4.0K | — | $21.5K | 158d |
| 56 | Bank of Japan Decision in September? PolymarketEconomics | No change72% 25 bps increase28% +3 more | — | +14.5 pts | $3.8K | — | $33.8K | 55d |
| 57 | Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026? KalshiWorld | Above 2599% No1.0% | — | — | $3.5K | $5.0K | — | 7d |
| 58 | Likud42% No58% | — | — | $3.1K | $14.6K | — | 1y | |
| 59 | Pena98% Fausto81% +30 more | — | — | $2.9K | $8.8K | — | 129d | |
| 60 |  Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No meeting by December 3170% China16% +13 more | — | -3.0 pts | $2.8K | — | $330.0K | 158d |
| 61 |  Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | AfD86% SPD14% +6 more | — | -1.0 pts | $2.7K | — | $227.2K | 56d |
| 62 | Rain in Miami in Jul 2026? KalshiWorld | Above 1 inch99% No1.0% | — | — | $2.5K | $4.4K | — | 7d |
| 63 |  NATO article 5 before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No92% Yes8.0% | — | — | $2.3K | — | $22.8K | 158d |
| 64 |  Next Prime Minister of Sweden PolymarketPolitics | Magdalena Andersson80% Ulf Kristersson17% +8 more | — | +0.5 pts | $2.3K | — | $358.1K | 49d |
| 65 |  Quebec General Election Winner PolymarketPolitics | PQ71% CAQ15% +4 more | — | +1.5 pts | $2.2K | — | $184.7K | 71d |
| 66 |  Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No86% Yes14% | — | -1.0 pts | $2.1K | — | $27.2K | 158d |
| 67 | Rain in NYC in Jul 2026? KalshiWorld | Above 1 inches99% No1.0% | — | — | $2.0K | $2.3K | — | 7d |
| 68 | Rain in Denver in Jul 2026? KalshiWorld | Above 1 inch96% No4.0% | — | +20.0 pts | $1.9K | $3.6K | — | 7d |
| 69 | No88% Yes13% | — | +3.5 pts | $1.8K | — | $25.0K | 70d | |
| 70 |  Modi out by December 31, 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No92% Yes7.5% | — | +0.1 pts | $1.8K | — | $17.5K | 158d |
| 71 |  Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No meeting before 202790% Switzerland3.0% +12 more | — | — | $1.8K | — | $300.2K | 158d |
| 72 |  Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No96% Yes4.0% | — | -0.3 pts | $1.8K | — | $32.0K | 158d |
| 73 |  Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No90% Yes10.0% | — | +1.0 pts | $1.7K | — | $49.8K | 158d |
| 74 | Amanda1.0% No99% | — | — | $1.7K | $2.3K | — | 129d | |
| 75 | Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory PolymarketPolitics | Lula da Silva 5-10%35% Lula da Silva 10-15%32% +9 more | — | -0.5 pts | $1.7K | — | $153.5K | 70d |
| 76 | Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won PolymarketPolitics | PL71% MDB16% +10 more | — | +3.0 pts | $1.6K | — | $107.2K | 70d |
| 77 | 70° or below48% 71° to 72°28% +4 more | — | +48.0 pts | $1.5K | $5.1K | — | 1d | |
| 78 |  Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...? PolymarketPolitics | August 315.5% July 312.2% +1 more | — | -0.4 pts | $1.5K | — | $39.2K | 5d |
| 79 |  Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August PolymarketEconomics | No change62% 25 bps increase34% +3 more | — | +8.0 pts | $1.5K | — | $20.6K | 16d |
| 80 | FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner KalshiSports | Javokhir Sindarov70% Gukesh Dommaraju30% +7 more | — | — | $1.4K | $7.3K | — | 2y |
| 81 |  China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? PolymarketWorld | No93% Yes6.9% | — | — | $1.4K | — | $100.9K | 158d |
| 82 |  Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? PolymarketWorld | No93% Yes7.0% | — | +0.5 pts | $1.4K | — | $80.5K | Closed |
| 83 | Rain in Seattle in Jul 2026? KalshiWorld | Above 1 inch17% No83% | — | +4.0 pts | $1.4K | $15.4K | — | 7d |
| 84 | 94° to 95°42% 96° or above31% +4 more | — | +42.0 pts | $1.3K | $4.4K | — | 1d | |
| 85 |  US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | No95% Yes4.5% | — | +0.4 pts | $1.2K | — | $37.4K | 158d |
| 86 |  Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...? PolymarketPolitics | No95% Yes5.0% | — | +0.5 pts | $1.1K | — | $89.2K | 158d |
| 87 |  Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? PolymarketPolitics | No97% Yes3.3% | — | +0.4 pts | $1.1K | — | $57.6K | 158d |
| 88 |  Will US withdraw from NATO by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 313.1% August 311.1% | — | +0.1 pts | $1.0K | — | $81.3K | 158d |
| 89 |  How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? PolymarketPolitics | 544% 439% +10 more | — | -0.1 pts | $961 | — | $349.8K | 158d |
| 90 |  Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 PolymarketPolitics | Yes68% No32% | — | +0.5 pts | $876 | — | $22.3K | 158d |
| 91 |  Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...? PolymarketPolitics | No84% Yes17% | — | -5.5 pts | $870 | — | $17.0K | 158d |
| 92 |  Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday? PolymarketPolitics | No87% Yes14% | — | — | $800 | — | $10.9K | 3d |
| 93 |  Will Russia capture Lyman by...? PolymarketPolitics | December 3154% September 3012% | — | +2.0 pts | $769 | — | $32.0K | 159d |
| 94 | Yes10% No90% | — | — | M$1.7K | — | $51 | 159d | |
| 95 | Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026? ManifoldWorld | Yes21% No79% | — | — | M$1.0K | — | $51 | 160d |
| 96 | Will Israel attack Iran in July 2026? ManifoldWorld | Yes42% No58% | — | — | M$519 | — | $4 | 6d |